The 119th Congress was just sworn in—and Democrats are already plotting how to take the gavel back from Speaker Mike Johnson and his noxious Republican conference.
House Majority PAC, a super PAC that seeks to elect Democrats to the House, announced its top 29 targets for the 2026 midterms, as well as another 16 reach seats that could be in play in the right political environment.
The group—which touted its 2024 track record of helping Democrats net a seat in the House despite the fact that Donald Trump won the popular vote nationwide—said it will begin by recruiting and vetting strong candidates in target districts.
“Headed into the midterms with lessons learned from 2024, HMP is today launching a 2026 Recruitment Fund—which will allow us to recruit and prepare potential candidates earlier than ever,” the group said in a news release. “With Republicans like [New York Rep.] Mike Lawler, [Arizona Rep.] Juan Ciscomani, [Michigan Rep.] John James, and potentially others likely leaving their seats, we must ensure Democratic campaigns are set up for success—and that comes through conducting qualitative and quantitative research to develop specific messaging and strategies for individual races.”
A few of the districts House Majority PAC is working to field strong recruits for include:
- Colorado’s 8th District, where Democrats lost to Rep.-elect Gabe Evans by less than 1 point.
- Iowa’s 1st District, where GOP Rep. Marionette Miller Meeks won by just 799 votes.
- Pennsylvania’s 7th District, where Democrats lost to Rep.-elect Ryan Mackenzie by 1 point.
- Pennsylvania’s 8th District, where Democrats lost to Rep.-elect Robert Bresnahan by less than 2 points.
- Pennsylvania’s 10th District, where Republican Rep. Scott Perry won by just 1.3 points.
- Nebraska’s 2nd District, where GOP Rep. Don Bacon was able to hold on by less than 2 points, even as Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district.
On paper, the 2026 midterms should be a good year for House Democrats.
They need to flip just three seats in order to win back control of the House—something they came painfully close to doing in 2024. Democrats fell short this year in the three districts that determined the majority by a combined total of just 7,309 votes.
And given that the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the first midterm election, that puts Democrats in prime position to oust Johnson from the speaker’s office.
Democrats will have the added advantage in 2026 of being able to run against what is sure to be Republican dysfunction in Congress, as the GOP will struggle to pass its agenda with a historically small majority and fractious caucus of members who love to vote against legislation and refuse to make the compromises necessary to pass bills.
For at least the first few months of 2025, the GOP majority will be just one seat, until special elections can be held to fill vacancies created by Trump nominating House lawmakers to serve in his administration. That means Johnson cannot lose a single vote if every member shows up, as it would result in a 216-216 tie and a vote would fail.
That will make basic tasks—such as funding the government—a tightrope act for Johnson, as Republicans love to vote against spending deals and often have to rely on Democratic votes to keep the government’s lights on.
In 2018, the first midterm of Trump’s first turn in the White House, Democrats ran on the Republican chaos and gained 40 seats to win the majority—far more than the 23 the party needed to win the gavel.
Meanwhile, what Trump and the Republican majorities in Congress are promising to achieve is unlikely to be popular with the electorate.
Republicans are already talking about cutting Social Security and Medicare—the third rail of politics—while at the same time slashing taxes for the wealthiest Americans. Polling shows that voters actually want the government to raise taxes on the wealthy.
Meanwhile Trump is pushing for tariffs that will increase costs for consumers and hurt the economy, exactly the opposite of what Americans supposedly voted for in November.
Democrats are already drawing attention to the GOP’s dangerous agenda.
"It has become increasingly apparent that many of my House Republican colleagues want to jam big tax cuts for the wealthy, the well-off and the well-connected down the throats of the American people and try to pay for those tax cuts, which will not benefit everyday Americans, by cutting Social Security and Medicare,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said at a December 11 news conference on Capitol Hill.
“This is not a hypothetical. It's not hype. It's not hyperbole. It's happening before our very eyes because extreme MAGA Republicans in the House are telling us, publicly and repeatedly, that's exactly what they plan to do to the American people,” Jeffries warned. “House Democrats are clear we will oppose any effort to end Social Security and Medicare as we know it."
Expect to hear that message a lot over the next two years.
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.
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Johnson Barely Wins Speaker Election (And House Applauds Gaetz Absence)
Mike Johnson finally secured the speakership on the first ballot after three GOP lawmakers initially voted against his candidacy during a tumultuous start for the 119th Congress on Friday.
Johnson could afford to lose just one vote and win the gavel. But Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, and Keith Self of Texas initially voted against Johnson, which would have blocked the Louisiana Republican from winning a majority of the ballots—and handed him an embarrassing defeat.
Initially, Massie voted for House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Norman voted for Ohio GOP Rep. Jim Jordan, and Self voted for Florida GOP Rep. Byron Donalds. However, none of these Republicans were officially running for the position.
However, after some politicking on the House floor and negotiation by Johnson, Norman and Self changed their votes to support Johnson, giving him the speaker’s gavel.
The move was critical because Congress needs a House speaker by January 6 to certify Donald Trump’s presidential victory, which is expected to happen on Monday.
Johnson’s rocky vote is a bad sign for Republicans’ ability to govern since keeping a conference unified to pick a leader should be the easiest vote of a Congress. And the GOP has no room to spare to pass Trump’s destructive agenda, as Republicans have the narrowest majority in nearly 100 years.
The 220 seats Republicans won in November is set to shrivel to 217 in the coming weeks because Trump nominated two GOP House members—Elise Stefanik of New York and Mike Waltz of Florida—to his administration. Florida Republican Matt Gaetz also declined to take the seat he won in November after his nomination to serve as Trump's attorney general crashed and burned. (When it was announced on the House floor Friday morning that Gaetz would not be taking his seat, multiple members of the House clapped.)
With just 217 seats—at least until the spring when special elections can be held to fill the vacancies—the eventual GOP speaker won’t be able to afford losing a single vote if every lawmaker is present. That will give Johnson no room to spare when trying to pass Trump's agenda of tax cuts for the rich and border security.
Among the pieces of legislation Republicans are promising to pass include a bill to require doctors to provide care to infants that survive abortions and a bill to require proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections, among others.
Harder still, Republicans will have to put up legislation in the spring to fund the government as well as raise the debt ceiling so that the United States doesn't default and plunge the country—and likely, the world—into economic crisis.
Given that both of those tasks will require compromise with Democrats in the Senate—where the filibuster currently remains in place, requiring 60 votes for legislation to earn an up-or-down vote—Speaker Johnson could face another revolt from hard-liners in his conference.
Indeed, far-right Rep. Chip Roy of Texas signaled that Johnson’s future as House speaker may be anything but certain.
What Johnson does have going for him, however, is that Republicans are set to change the rules to make it harder to oust him from the speakership.
In the previous Congress, one lawmaker from either party could force a vote to oust a speaker. But the proposed rules for the new Congress, only GOP lawmakers can force a vote and only if they get eight other GOP lawmakers to co-sponsor their motion.
Democrats mocked Republicans for the chaos they created so quickly into the new session of Congress.
“Well folks… Johnson doesn’t have the votes… At least on this first round…” Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas wrote in a post on X. “THE PARTY of CHAOS is at it again! Welcome to the 119th Congress!”
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect the changing nature of the House speakership vote.
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.
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