Mitt Romney says he’s “winning.” So did Charlie Sheen.

It’s an old Karl Rove strategy. But it just isn’t true.

In this morning’s PoliticoPlaybook, Mike Allen points out the facts:

A cold shower for the GOP: Most polling shows Romney trailing in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa—by MORE than Obama trails in North Carolina.

The fact is that if the president wins in Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa or Nevada, he wins. He is up in all of these states, especially in polls that include people who only have cell phones.

Guys, the national polls are interesting, but until polls start showing Romney ahead in NV/IA, WI, or OH, he’s losing.

— Sean Trende (@SeanTrende) October 24, 2012

The Washington Post‘s Greg Sargent adds:

Another factoid no one will discuss: The race is tighter in VA than in OH. But somehow it’s been decided that Romney has won VA.

Republican’s deluding themselves into thinking they’re winning isn’t just a feature of their Republican brains, it’s a strategy. They know swing voters tend to vote for the winner. But the winner according to the best estimates is still looking like President Obama.

Photo credit: AP Photo/The Daytona Beach News-Journal, David Massey