When Palm Beach County District Attorney Dave Aronberg appeared on MSNBC’s Morning Joe on Thursday, January 13, the South Florida Democrat wasn’t bullish on his party’s chances of unseating Gov. Ron DeSantis in Florida’s 2022 gubernatorial election. But there was a major caveat: Aronberg believes that if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade this summer, that could derail DeSantis’ chances of winning a second term.

“He is in great shape to win his reelection because he is going to have like $100 million in campaign funds,” the prosecutor told Morning Joe hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski. “He has become a national MAGA figure, and he is getting tons of money from outside the state. And we have three Democrats running for governor right now, and they’re not raising nearly the money DeSantis is. But in the end, Florida is somewhat of a swing state.”

Aronberg, a frequent critic of Florida’s far-right governor, added that how the high court rules on Roe v. Wade could pull the rug out from under DeSantis. If Roe v. Wade is overturned later this year, Aronberg argued, DeSantis’ anti-abortion views could work against him in November and fire up pro-choice voters in the Sunshine State — which, Aronberg stressed, is not a deep red state like Mississippi.

“If the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, they’ll do so in the summer right before his reelection,” Aronberg told Scarborough and Brzezinski. “DeSantis just came out and said he would support a Mississippi-style abortion bill. Well, that may work in Mississippi and other southern states, but Florida is different. That’s the kind of thing that shows he’s out of touch with Floridians and could jeopardize, what seems to many, a certain reelection.”

Conservative strategist Rick Wilson, a Florida-based Never Trumper, has described Florida as a swing state where Democrats “struggle” in statewide elections and have a hard time getting past the finish line.

When DeSantis defeated former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, a liberal/progressive Democrat, in Florida’s 2018 gubernatorial election, he did so by less than one percent. Then in 2020, now-President Joe Biden lost Florida to then-President Donald Trump by around three percent (compared to 26 percent in Alabama or 16 percent in Mississippi). ‘

Article reprinted with permission from Alternet