Karl Rove, George W. Bush’s top political adviser for over a decade and the brains behind an outside group that hopes to raise and spend $300 million opposing President Obama’s re-election, released his first analysis of the 2012 electoral map this week, picking Obama as the early favorite.

His electoral map, reproduced below, pegs the president as the solid favorite in 18 states totaling 220 electoral votes, and as the slight favorite in another five states (New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) totaling 64 votes; the combined 284 electoral votes would be well over the 270 needed to win a second term.

While some of Rove’s choices — especially listing South Carolina, a conservative state Obama has almost no chance of winning, as a toss-up — might raise eyebrows, his 2008 map proved quite accurate. And even if this early look is meant to scare wealthy Republican donors into contributing to his American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS groups, the simple fact is that President Obama is in a strong position six months out from election day.