New Poll Indicates Real Momentum As Harris Surges Past Trump (And Biden)
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in a new Civiqs poll for Daily Kos, 49 to 45 percent, with an increasing number of voters expressing confidence that Harris can defeat Trump compared to President Joe Biden. Harris has consolidated support among traditional Democratic voters, while Trump is just as troubling as ever and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, remains a drag on the GOP ticket.
Despite these changing trends, more voters still believe that Trump will win.
In June’s survey, Biden and Trump were locked in at 45 percent each. The four-point gain for Harris this month signals an almost palpable sense of relief among voters.
Biden gets high approval for ending his bid: 55 percent of respondents say they are “glad that Biden left the race,” including 59 percent of independents, as well as 67 percent of young voters, 50 percent of Black voters, and 59 percent of Hispanic voters.
The flip side of the question is whether Harris has a better chance than Biden to beat Trump, and 76 percent of Democrats say she does, along with 46 percent of independents. Again, Black (60 percent), Hispanic (58 percent), and young (62 percent) voters lead in saying Harris can get the job done.
The bump Harris gained compared to Biden comes from all these groups as well as women. Last month, Biden was polling at 52 percent with women; Harris is now at 58 percent. She gains nine points over Biden with young voters (55 percent to 46 percent), and 11 points among both Black voters (86 to 75 percent) and Hispanic voters (57 versus 46 percent).
Harris has a slight edge in favorability: 43 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion of the vice president, compared to Trump’s 42 percent. They’re both miles ahead of Trump’s running mate Vance, who 51 percent of voters already don’t like. That’s a very high disapproval rating for a first-term senator who few people might have heard of before he got the nod from Trump. Even among Republicans, only 67 percent think Vance was a good choice. Voters are poised to hate him.
Trump is still seen as a threat to democracy, with 39 percent of voters saying their primary concern about him is his “impact on America's democracy,” dwarfing all other issues. The next most concerning issue for them is abortion and social policies, which eight percent of respondents say is their biggest concern.
When it comes to who they believe will ultimately win the election, though, 45 percent of respondents think Trump will claim victory, while 42 percent think Harris will win. In June’s poll, just 37 percent thought Biden would win, showing definite momentum for Harris.
She is closing the gap and voters think she has a better chance than Biden did, but Democrats still have work to do.
Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.
