Tag: barack obama
Gallup Survey Suggests Election Could Mirror Obama Victory In 2008

Gallup Survey Suggests Election Could Mirror Obama Victory In 2008

Democrats have another reason to be optimistic about Tuesday's presidential election after the release of a new Gallup poll.

Gallup, which is considered one of the more reputable polling organizations operating today, doesn't do election horse-race polls of candidates. However, it does measure public opinion in other important ways that could predict how an election may turn out. On Thursday, Gallup released a series of polls exploring voter enthusiasm among supporters of both major parties and compared it to voter enthusiasm in past election cycles. The organization also gauged at how effective each campaign was at voter outreach.

In its most recent survey, Gallup asked voters: "Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic?" The share of Democratic voters who said they were "more enthusiastic" was at 77 percent, whereas the share of Republicans who answered the same way was just 67 percent.

When comparing the 2024 result to past elections, Democrats in particular are even more motivated to vote in 2024 than they were in 2008, where 76 percent of Democratic respondents said they were "more enthusiastic." Republicans are also registering more enthusiasm in 2024 than in 2008, though that margin is smaller: In 2008, 61 percent of Republican voters were more excited to vote, whereas that share climbs slightly to 67 percent in 2024.

An additional notable metric from Gallup's survey found that while Republican voter enthusiasm was at roughly the same level this year as it was in 2020 (66 percent four years ago compared to 67 percent today), Harris is seeing a higher share of enthusiasm from her base than President Joe Biden had, as Biden registered at 75 percent compared to her 77 percent.

"Since Gallup first asked the question in 2000, the enthusiasm measure has shown a mixed relationship with presidential election outcomes. Democratic enthusiasm advantages in 2008 and 2020 preceded party wins, while a Republican advantage in 2012 came in a year their party lost," Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones wrote. "Republicans also had a lead in 2000, when George W. Bush won the election in the Electoral College. In other years, no party had an obvious advantage in enthusiasm."

Alejandra Caraballo, who is a Harvard Law School clinical instructor at the university's Cyberlaw Clinic, posted the Gallup poll on the social media platform Bluesky on Thursday. She opined that Harris is being underestimated by current polls, as she believes pollsters are consistently under-sampling women voter turnout in November.

"I fully expect her to win by four and I'll take the over," Caraballo wrote. "The polls are seriously missing something along gender lines and it's distorting the results. I've dug into crosstabs on state level polling and gender is completely off."

"The gender breakdown makes absolutely no sense," she continued, referencing a recent YouGov/CES poll. "Kamala doesn't win women in any age group. But Biden won women by nine and they made up 56 percent of the electorate. They even have young men being more Democratic than young women."

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

'Hope Is Making A Comeback': Michelle Obama Blows Off The Roof

'Hope Is Making A Comeback': Michelle Obama Blows Off The Roof

Former first lady Michelle Obama knocked it out of the park at Tuesday’s Democratic National Convention.

“Hope is making a comeback!” she declared, bringing the crowd to its feet.

Obama offered plenty of inspiration in her speech, but she didn’t shy away from calling out Donald Trump.

“For years, Donald Trump did everything in his power to try to make people fear us,” she said. “See, his his limited, narrow view of the world made him feel threatened by the existence of two hardworking, highly educated, successful people—who happened to be black.”

But Obama was not done. “I want to know. I want to know who's going to tell him. Who's going to tell him that the job he's currently seeking might just be one of those ‘Black jobs’?”

But Obama also called on people to act, to fight, to “do something.”

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Kamala Harris

'Not Since Obama': Is Harris Campaign Turning Into A Movement?

Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee for just over one week, is heading a campaign that is edging toward becoming a political and cultural movement, according to a top Democratic pollster and strategist, with some starting to compare her popularity to Barack Obama’s historic 2008 campaign.

“There’s something happening,” writes former DNC pollster Cornell Belcher, the President of brilliant corners Research & Strategies, and a frequent MSNBC guest, “last night this campaign moved in the direction of a movement.”

Belcher reposted video of what’s being called an “iconic” moment from Harris’ rally of more than 10,000 people (according to the campaign) in Atlanta Tuesday night.

“It vibrates different, its rhythm is different, it’s gaining cultural significance that resonates beyond conventional political metrics. It’s becoming a vibe. GOP has no answer for this,” he declared.

That video has received more than two million views in under 24 hours.

“I’d argue mainstream media is not getting it either,” responded media critic Jennifer Schulze. “Cannot judge this moment by usual metrics like ‘honeymoon’ etc. Something really big is happening. Big.”

“I still have lots of Republican former colleagues and friends,” attorney, journalist, and author Sophia A. Nelson noted. “They are telling me, ‘It’s over. Harris is bigger than Obama and the timing is right for a woman to win.’ They also lament: ‘JD Vance was the worst pick ever for VP–Trump needed Haley or a woman to moderate him.’ ”

“Pundits and Democratic leaders have said Harris’ elevation to Dem nominee has reminded them of Obama’s 2008 campaign in terms of the excitement it has garnered,” writes Religion News Service’s Jack Jenkins.

“This is an energy on the ground I have not seen since Barack Obama in 2008,” DNC Chair Jaime Harrison said last week.

Watch the videos above or at this link.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

America Has Only One Healthy Political Party

America Has Only One Healthy Political Party

Within minutes of President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 race, Sen. Tom Cotton leaped onto X to declare that "Joe Biden succumbed to a coup by Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, and Hollywood donors, ignoring millions of Democratic primary votes. Donald Trump took a bullet for democracy."

Radio host Erick Erickson was even more creative, tweeting that "Y'all can argue over the word coup, but Biden stepping aside is the American equivalent of all those people accidentally falling out of windows in Russia."

David Sacks, the Putin lickspittle, Elon Musk appendage, and featured speaker at the Republican National Convention, offered that "One candidate survived assassination. The other staged a coup. Your choice, America."

And Speaker Mike Johnson told a TV audience on Sunday that "it would be wrong and I think unlawful in accordance to some of these state rules for a handful of people to go in the backroom and switch it out because they're — they don't like the candidate any longer."

This is rich. There is indeed a candidate in this race who attempted to stage a coup, and we know who that is. Trump submitted his false electoral votes, pressured his vice president and sent his goons to Capitol Hill because he would not accept the verdict of the voters. And the party that openly admires Vladimir Putin (see Carlson, Tucker) has no business making snarky comments about people falling out of windows. So please sit down and shut up with your coup talk.

The response of the GOP to a real attempted coup? After some initial condemnations, nearly the entire party fell into line denying that January 6 had been anything to get excited about and endorsing the coup-plotter for reelection. There were no calls for him to drop out of the race.

As for the speaker's suggestion that it's somehow illegal for the candidate to decline to run, perhaps he might want to consult the Thirteenth Amendment to the Constitution, which forbids involuntary servitude.

What we witnessed over the past several weeks was the Democratic Party acting like a healthy institution. Democrats ushered Joe Biden into the nomination in 2020, and they ushered him out in 2024 for good and sufficient reasons. Yes, it was painful for Biden, but with the stakes being so high, Democrats found that sentimentality was something neither they nor the country could afford.

In early 2020, Bernie Sanders won Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. A self-proclaimed socialist who had honeymooned in the USSR, Sanders was popular with a dedicated share of primary voters but widely perceived to be a general election loser. Yet the dynamics of nominating races being cumulative, he seemed to be rolling down the tracks toward victory. Only South Carolina stood as a speed bump between the first three contests and the Super Tuesday races that would decide the contest.

And so the party moved. Parties are more than primary voters. They are elected leaders and candidates and donors and influencers. They are community leaders and church voices and former presidents. In 2020, many of those figures took a hard look at the Sanders candidacy and recognized that if the party failed to take collective action — if half a dozen competitors remained in the race (as Republicans had done in the face of the Trump threat in 2016) — then the party would nominate a sure loser.

At that stage, Joe Biden had come in fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. He finished second in Nevada, but with less than half the share of votes that Sanders received. Still, the Democrats proved themselves a mighty machine. First Rep. Jim Clyburn, with enormous influence among Black South Carolinians, threw his support behind Biden, and in short order, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Beto O'Rourke dropped out of the race, also endorsing Biden. Those candidates represented the Democratic center, and when they were no longer dividing it up, it coalesced around Biden. He didn't so much win in 2020 as he was carried on the shoulders of a party that made a wise calculation about its main chance.

That's not to discount the whole campaign. Biden did a good job in the general election campaign (though COVID made it an unprecedentedly undemanding race), performed well enough in the debates and town halls, and delivered a great convention speech.

In 2024, the party that hoisted Biden to the nomination had the dreary task of persuading him to hang it up. He was stubborn, and it required a full court press, but the former speaker and former presidents and donors and elected officials and editorial writers and more did the sad duty that the moment required.

The Democratic Party demonstrated for the second straight election cycle that it remains a healthy organ of democracy. And it's a damn lucky thing it is, because it is arrayed against a party that celebrates violence, marinates in lies, and worships an insurrectionist.

Mona Charen is policy editor of The Bulwark and host of the "Beg to Differ" podcast. Her latest book is Hard Right: The GOP's Drift Toward Extremism.

Reprinted with permission from Creators.

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