Tag: elections
What Wisconsin's Supreme Court Election Could Mean For Abortion Rights

What Wisconsin's Supreme Court Election Could Mean For Abortion Rights

On April 1, Wisconsin voters will elect their next Supreme Court justice. A seat that opened up after Justice Ann Walsh Bradley announced she would not seek reelection when her term expires on July 31 will be filled by either conservative candidate Waukesha County Circuit Court Judge Brad Schimel or liberal candidate Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford. The new justice will take office in August.

If Schimel is elected, he would flip control of the high court from its current 4-3 liberal majority and possibly determine the ruling on the validity of an 1849 statute that could ban abortion in the state.

Following the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade and the federal constitutional right to abortion in June 2022, Wisconsin’s 1849 law went into effect, and for over a year, it was used to ban abortion in the state.

In December 2023, Dane County Circuit Judge Diane Schlipper ruled that the law pertained to infanticide and not to abortion, but challenges to the law continue through the courts. The state Supreme Court heard oral arguments in November 2024, and a ruling is expected in the coming months.

Where it specifically mentions abortion, the 174-year-old statute provides exceptions for “therapeutic abortion” performed by a physician and deemed necessary “to save the life of the mother.”

Schimel has said he believes that “life begins at conception,” and in a recent debate with Crawford on March 12, when he was asked about the 1849 statute, Schimel said, “It was passed by two Houses of the legislature and signed by a governor. That means it’s a valid law.”

An expert in health care law and a physician told the Wisconsin Independent that the wording of the law is vague and could put patients’ lives in danger.

Richard Davis, a Milwaukee attorney with the firm Quarles and Brady, said that while the law was being enforced as a ban on abortion, he advised his clients to meticulously document every case in which an abortion was required to save the life of the patient.

“The key there is medical documentation, making sure the physician involved in the procedure or ordering the procedure is able to clearly and accurately state why the procedure is necessary to save the life of the mother, and keeping thorough records of that,” Davis told the Wisconsin Independent.

“Just kind of thinking forward from that physician’s perspective, if the state were to try to bring a case here, having that clear documentation of saying, No, this was necessary to save the life of the mother in my medical judgment for X, Y and Z reasons, and the more clearly and effectively they could state that, the lower the liability here is under the statute.”

Davis said that if the 1849 law were to again be interpreted as an abortion statute as opposed to a feticide statute and be enforceable by the high court, his greatest legal concern is a lack of clear parameters guiding physicians in practice.

“From a legal perspective, there’s only so much we can say, this is what the law says, and it really does boil down to the physician’s medical judgment,” Davis said.

Dr. Shefaali Sharma, an obstetrician-gynecologist in Madison, said that she’s concerned that the vague wording of the 1849 statute will result in more maternal deaths.

“When you put in vague wording that scares people in terms of how they practice, and instead of practicing based on the clinical picture in front of them and the science and the data and the evidence and objective standpoints with shared decision-making with the patient after they’ve been counseled, and instead you use fearmongering and political agendas to define what a life is and how on the edge it needs to be before you can intervene to save it, we’re going to see more maternal deaths,” Sharma said..

Sharma said that the 1849 law would devastate the state’s medical system and that patients would seek care from providers outside of the state in crisis situations such as a miscarriage or a desired abortion.

She also said that some physicians might leave the state.

“That means that more women are going to be at risk for complications,” Sharma said. “We’re going to see changes in the quality and the rigor of the training and the caliber of physicians that stay in state, because we’re going to lose those skills, and that’s going to result in so much devastation to the health care of women in the state of Wisconsin.”

Reprinted with permission from Wisconsin Independent.

Polls In Florida's Sixth District Special Are Scaring Republicans

Polls In Florida's Sixth District Special Are Scaring Republicans

Last Tuesday, a Democrat pulled off an upset win in a deep-red Pennsylvania state Senate seat where President Donald Trump won by 15 percentage points last year.

Add that into the list of other special elections Democrats have overperformed in this year, and it’s clear why Republicans are suddenly sweating the special election in Florida's Sixth Congressional District.

Florida’s Sixth District was vacated by Republican Mike Waltz, who you might now know as the world’s most incompetent national security adviser. Last year, Trump won the district by 30 points—a huge margin—so it shouldn’t be, by any stretch of the imagination, competitive.

And yet …

A poll by St. Pete Polls for news outlet Florida Politics finds that Republican nominee Randy Fine is leading Democrat Josh Weil by a measly four points, 48 percent to 44 percent. That puts a Weil victory within the poll’s margin of error. Even worse for Republicans is that an internal poll from Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s 2024 pollster, finds Fine down 3 points to Weil, according to Axios. The same pollster had Fine up 12 points in February.

But let’s take a breath. Normally, undecided voters end up voting in line with their district/state’s partisan lean, which is R+14 for Florida’s Sixth, according to the Cook Political Report. That means it’s 14 points more Republican than the country as a whole. So, in a normal election, I would expect the Republican would win this seat with roughly 57 percent of the vote to the Democrat’s 43 percent—a spread of 14 points.

That, in itself, would flash some warning signs in GOP hallways. In November, Waltz won the seat with over 66 percent of the vote, in what ended up being a good cycle for Republicans overall.

But this isn’t a normal election. This is a special election in April, in a climate in which rank-and-file Democrats are seething over the state of the nation. Turnout will be the name of the game, and by all indications, Democrats are far more motivated than Republicans.

In the St. Pete/Florida Politics poll, Weil leads among those who have voted, 51 percent to 43 percent. As of Thursday, in early-voting returns, registered Republicans have just a five-point advantage in who has voted so far. The chances of an upset are small, but they do exist—shockingly. And a lot of that could be because, according to that St. Pete’s/Florida Politics poll, 51 percent of the district’s likely voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 45 percent disapprove. Remember, he won by 30 points in November. Given that, it’s not so surprising to see Fine’s anemic early performance.

Uncertainty over this district reportedly played a role in the Trump administration pulling Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be U.N. ambassador. The nomination had already been languishing as House Republicans were loath to (temporarily) lose her vote, given their razor-thin majority in the chamber.

But pulling Stefanik’s nomination doesn’t solve the GOP’s bigger problem. Its ability to maintain party discipline in the House has been genuinely impressive, and has been driven almost exclusively by Trump’s strong-arm efforts to threaten members who stray with primary challenges. They fear Trump. And Elon Musk, who might fund those challengers if a representative crosses the president.

But what happens if Trump is also alienating voters to such an extent that districts that backed him by 30 points are now competitive?

Put another way, Trump keeps his troops in line because they think his backing will give them the best chance to win reelection in 2026. So what happens if being closely tied to Trump makes it less likely they survive? What good is weathering a Republican primary only to end up getting steamrolled by a Democrat in the general election? It’s quite the conundrum, isn’t it?

The closer the margin in Tuesday’s special election, the bigger that conundrum for Republicans. And if Democrats pull off a big upset?

Then look out.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

Trump Issues New Executive Order On Election Procedures To 'Rig Midterms'

Trump Issues New Executive Order On Election Procedures To 'Rig Midterms'

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump issued a new executive order targeting voter eligibility and voting by mail. Various experts, journalists and commentators are now concerned that Trump may be attempting to put his thumb on the scale ahead of next year's midterm elections.

According to the Washington Post, the order "could prevent millions of Americans from voting" if it passes legal muster. Notably, the order mandates that states require voters provide a "government-issued documentary proof of citizenship" upon registering to vote, and that only Real ID drivers' licenses and passports are accepted, whereas birth certificates alone are not sufficient. The order would also ban states from counting mailed ballots that arrive after Election Day, which would be a significant curtailing of voting by mail (states allowing vote-by-mail typically count ballots after Election Day provided that they were postmarked on or before Election Day).

SiriusXM host Dean Obeidallah accused Trump of "trying to rig [the] 2026 election" with the order, and argued that "banning birth certificates is RIGGING!" Alexei Koseff, who covers the California state capitol for CalMatters, said the order has "huge implications" for residents of the largest state in the union, given how much of the Golden State votes by mail. Ottawa,

Canada-based radio journalist Andy Pinsent observed: "When this is inevitably shut down by the courts, the [White House] will posture that 'radical judges want illegal immigrants to vote.'" And author Mitchell Plitnick flatly asserted: "The order is illegal. This is Trump testing to see if he can get away with it. Win or lose, you can bet this is only the first volley in a campaign to undermine free and fair elections."

"When they said 'voter fraud' it meant they wanted to do it," University of Iowa associate sociology professor Victor Ray wrote on Bluesky.

When combing through the full text of the executive order itself, Harvard Law Cyberlaw Clinic instructor Alejandra Caraballo noticed one line that stood out to her. The order stipulates that the Department of Homeland Security will coordinate with the administrator of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — which is unofficially led by Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk — to "review each state's publicly available voter registration list and available records concerning voter list maintenance activities."

"Elon Musk would now be in charge of the databases determining voter eligibility," Caraballo wrote.

"I don't say that the law won't stop this and elections won't matter because I'm a doomer. I'm saying this so people understand the moment we're in. We're no longer a democracy," she continued. "People need to accurately diagnose the problem before they can fix it and waiting for the courts or elections isn't it."

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

Midterm Harbinger? Democrats Flip Seat In Deep Red Trump Country

Midterm Harbinger? Democrats Flip Seat In Deep Red Trump Country

Democrats on Tuesday flipped an Iowa state Senate seat in a district Donald Trump carried by 21 percentage points just a few months earlier, an incredible special election result that may serve as an early warning signal for Republicans about the 2026 midterms.

Democrat Mike Zimmer defeated Republican Kate Whittington, 52 to 48 percent, in a special election for Senate District 35—a rural seat located on the state’s eastern side.

In November 2022, Republican Chris Cournoyer defeated her Democratic opponent, 61 to 39 percent, in this same seat—making Zimmer's win a massive shift toward Democrats. (Cournoyer resigned the seat to become Iowa’s lieutenant governor, creating the vacancy.)

Zimmer’s win should give Republicans a case of heartburn since special election results often correlate with the outcome in the next midterm election.

Democrats saw a similar overperformance in special elections in 2017, after Trump took office the first time. Those special election victories turned out to be the precursor to Democrats taking back the U.S. House and winning big in state-legislative races in 2018.

“This earthquake victory in Iowa puts Republicans across the country on notice,” Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “In a ruby red district that Trump won by 21 points, DLCC candidate Mike Zimmer clinched a comfortable win against his extreme MAGA opponent. Tonight’s win marks the first flip of the cycle and builds on key majority-making wins in Virginia earlier this month. The DLCC is starting the new cycle strong just a month into 2025—from battlegrounds to Republican territory. We have dozens more special elections on the horizon—we’re only just getting started.”

It wasn’t just Zimmer who overperformed in a special election on Tuesday.

In Minnesota, Democrats won a state Senate district by a 91-to-9 percent margin to win a majority in the chamber. In November, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried this same district, with 83 percent to Trump’s 14 percent—making Tuesday’s results a sizable swing toward Democrats, according to data from the Downballot.

Ultimately, Zimmer’s performance also gives Democrats hope in upcoming congressional special elections.

Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York is expected to leave her seat to be Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, and her district’s partisanship is similar to that of the Iowa state Senate seat Democrats just won.

“Democrats just flipped a Trump +21 Iowa state Senate seat in the first special election since Trump assumed office. Of note: New York’s 21st District, which Elise Stefanik is vacating soon, was also Trump +21 in 2024,” Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of the election-analysis outlet Inside Elections, wrote in a post on X.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

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