Tag: gallup poll
Gallup Survey Suggests Election Could Mirror Obama Victory In 2008

Gallup Survey Suggests Election Could Mirror Obama Victory In 2008

Democrats have another reason to be optimistic about Tuesday's presidential election after the release of a new Gallup poll.

Gallup, which is considered one of the more reputable polling organizations operating today, doesn't do election horse-race polls of candidates. However, it does measure public opinion in other important ways that could predict how an election may turn out. On Thursday, Gallup released a series of polls exploring voter enthusiasm among supporters of both major parties and compared it to voter enthusiasm in past election cycles. The organization also gauged at how effective each campaign was at voter outreach.

In its most recent survey, Gallup asked voters: "Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic?" The share of Democratic voters who said they were "more enthusiastic" was at 77 percent, whereas the share of Republicans who answered the same way was just 67 percent.

When comparing the 2024 result to past elections, Democrats in particular are even more motivated to vote in 2024 than they were in 2008, where 76 percent of Democratic respondents said they were "more enthusiastic." Republicans are also registering more enthusiasm in 2024 than in 2008, though that margin is smaller: In 2008, 61 percent of Republican voters were more excited to vote, whereas that share climbs slightly to 67 percent in 2024.

An additional notable metric from Gallup's survey found that while Republican voter enthusiasm was at roughly the same level this year as it was in 2020 (66 percent four years ago compared to 67 percent today), Harris is seeing a higher share of enthusiasm from her base than President Joe Biden had, as Biden registered at 75 percent compared to her 77 percent.

"Since Gallup first asked the question in 2000, the enthusiasm measure has shown a mixed relationship with presidential election outcomes. Democratic enthusiasm advantages in 2008 and 2020 preceded party wins, while a Republican advantage in 2012 came in a year their party lost," Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones wrote. "Republicans also had a lead in 2000, when George W. Bush won the election in the Electoral College. In other years, no party had an obvious advantage in enthusiasm."

Alejandra Caraballo, who is a Harvard Law School clinical instructor at the university's Cyberlaw Clinic, posted the Gallup poll on the social media platform Bluesky on Thursday. She opined that Harris is being underestimated by current polls, as she believes pollsters are consistently under-sampling women voter turnout in November.

"I fully expect her to win by four and I'll take the over," Caraballo wrote. "The polls are seriously missing something along gender lines and it's distorting the results. I've dug into crosstabs on state level polling and gender is completely off."

"The gender breakdown makes absolutely no sense," she continued, referencing a recent YouGov/CES poll. "Kamala doesn't win women in any age group. But Biden won women by nine and they made up 56 percent of the electorate. They even have young men being more Democratic than young women."

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

proud boys

Gallup Finds GOP Image Tanking Fast — Due To Republican Defections

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos

Americans' views of the Republican Party have taken a serious hit ever since the November election and the party's repeated efforts to overturn the election results, according to new polling from Gallup.

Just 37 percent of adults say they have a favorable view of the party, a precipitous six-point slide in just a few months from the 43 percent who viewed it positively in November. In the same period, the Democratic Party gained a few points in favorability, with 48 percent of respondents now viewing the party favorably. That gives Democrats what Gallup calls a "rare double-digit advantage in favorability."

But what is perhaps most striking is where the GOP is bleeding support from—its own ranks. "Since November, the GOP's image has suffered the most among Republican Party identifiers, from 90 percent favorable to 78 percent. Independents' and Democrats' opinions are essentially unchanged," according to Gallup. That image problem isn't merely theoretical; it has already resulted in tens of thousands of GOP defections across the country since November as conservative voters officially switch their party affiliations to something other than Republican.

On the flip side, Democrats' gain in favorability has come mostly from independents, whose positive views of party have increased by seven points since November, from 41 percent to 48 percent.

The GOP has "often" sunk into sub-40 territory, according to Gallup. When Donald Trump forced a lengthy government shutdown over his border wall in January 2019, for instance, GOP favorability fell to 38 percent. But news of the party's plummeting image comes right as GOP lawmakers rally around Trump—the main driver of their recent disfavored status—to prevent his conviction on impeachment charges.

Historically, the party that initiates impeachment proceedings takes a political hit. But Trump and his flagrant efforts to subvert the will of the people have proven to be historically unpopular, and Democrats are actually gaining in popularity due to their efforts to hold Trump accountable and safeguard American democracy.

Republicans, on the other hand, are sticking with Trump no matter the consequences because they simply can't imagine a world in which they have to appeal to anything beyond white identity to win elections.

Donald Trump

Gallup Poll: Trump And Congressional Approval Ratings Plummet

Both President Donald Trump's and Congressional approval ratings have plummeted in the first half of December, according to a new Gallup poll.

Trump's approval rating has dipped to 39 percent, a 7 point decrease from the last Gallup survey, while Congressional satisfaction dropped 15%, the lowest rating for the 116th Congress, according to Gallup.

The president began December by ramping up political attacks while also increasing his threats to American democracy. His erratic behavior has even started to worry Trump's aides and his closest allies, leading to a "heated" Oval Office meeting with far-right conspiracists Michael Flynn and Sidney Powell. In that meeting Flynn proposed "martial law" to overturn the free and fair election that Joe Biden won by millions of votes.

Meanwhile, December was also a tumultuous month for Congress, as members bickered over a yearly defense spending bill (NDAA), a budget for FY 2021, and much needed COVID-19 relief. Late last night, right before a midnight deadline, Trump finally signed a joint bill which included COVID-19 relief and next year's budget. He also vetoed the defense bill, which Congress is expected to overturn.

Though American's moods are souring towards the current government, the Biden administration is receiving high marks for handling the transition. According to Gallup, nearly two-thirds of respondents reported they "approve" of Biden's actions during the transition.

immigrants

New Polling Confirms Americans Welcome Immigrants More Than Ever

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

Here's more of that other "Trump Effect" we've talked about before: new polling from Pew Research this week continues to confirm that Americans have only become more welcoming of immigrants and refugees since 2016 and Donald Trump's ensuing xenophobic presidency.

"In 2016 voters were about evenly divided in the share saying that the growing number of newcomers strengthens American society," Pew said, finding that 46 percent of all voters agreed with the statement. Four years later, that number has now surged to 60 percent. Americans "across the political spectrum have shifted in a more liberal direction in this domain," researchers said.

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