Tag: james carville
James Carville

'I Am Certain': James Carville Predicts Harris Will Defeat Trump

With the United States' 2024 presidential election less than two weeks away, many polls continue to show a very close race. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has small single-digit leads in some national and battleground state polls, while her GOP rival, former President Donald Trump, is slightly ahead in others.

The Hill's Amie Parnes', in an article published on October 23, takes a look at Democratic insiders who privately fear that the campaign is "slipping further away" from Harris. But in a New York Times guest op-ed/essay published the same day, veteran Democratic strategist/consultant James Carville lays out three reasons why he is "certain" Harris will win.

A different Democratic strategist, presumably interviewed on condition of anonymity, told The Hill, "Everyone keeps saying, 'It's close.' Yes, it's close, but are things trending our way? No. And no one wants to openly admit that. Could we still win? Maybe. Should anyone be even slightly optimistic right now? No."

Another Democratic strategist, also quoted anonymously, told The Hill, "If this is a vibe election, the current vibes ain't great."

But the 79-year-old Carville doesn't see it that way at all.

In his New York Times op-ed/essay, Carville argues, "There is a palpable anxiety wailing on the winds of American life right now. More than in any other election in my lifetime, I've been consistently asked by people of all stripes and creeds: 'Can Kamala Harris win this thing? Are we going to be OK?' This sentiment is heard over and over from sweaty Democratic operatives who all too often love to run to the press with their woes."

Carville continues, "While I am not one to take part in the political prediction industry — recently ballooned by mysterious crypto investments gambling on a Donald Trump victory — today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain."

According to Carville, Harris is headed for victory because: (1) "Mr. Trump is a repeat electoral loser. This time will be no different," (2) "Money matters, and Ms. Harris has it in droves," and (3) "It's just a feeling."

Carville acknowledges that #3 is "100 percent emotional" but points out that Harris has a very broad range of support — from Republican former Vice President Dick Cheney and his equally conservative daughter, former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), to self-described "democratic socialist" Rep. Alexandria-Occasion Cortez (D-NY).

"If the Cheneys and AOC get that the Constitution and our democracy are on the ballot," Carville writes, "every true conservative and every true progressive should get it too. A vast majority of Americans are rational, reasonable people of good will…. For the past decade, Mr. Trump has infected American life with a malignant political sickness, one that would have wiped out many other global democracies."

Carville adds, "On January 6, 2021, our democracy itself nearly succumbed to it. But Mr. Trump has stated clearly that this will be the last time he runs for president. That is exactly why we should be exhilarated by what comes next: Mr. Trump is a loser. He is going to lose again."

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

Trump and Biden

Trump Blabs Debate Strategy -- Now Biden Plans Rebuttal

Former President Donald Trump recently telegraphed how he'll come at President Joe Biden in next week's presidential debate. Now, Biden's advisors are refining the president's counter-attack.

In his latest column for The New Republic, writer Greg Sargent delved into how Biden's campaign team is preparing the president to respond to likely attacks from his Republican opponent focused on immigration. On his Truth Social platform, Trump strongly hinted that he'll be attempting to pin isolated incidents of undocumented immigrants committing violent crimes on Biden.

"We have a new Biden Migrant Killing - It’s only going to get worse, and it’s all Crooked Joe Biden’s fault," the former president wrote. "I look forward to seeing him at the Fake Debate on Thursday. Let him explain why he has allowed MILLIONS of people to come into our Country illegally!"

Of course, as Sargent noted, the facts don't jibe with Trump's assertions that immigrant crime is a serious problem. Earlier this year, data from various large urban police departments showed that native-born U.S. citizens commit crime at a much higher rate than undocumented immigrants.

"Contrary to public perception, we observe considerably lower felony arrest rates among undocumented immigrants compared to legal immigrants and native-born US citizens and find no evidence that undocumented criminality has increased in recent years," read a 2020 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

However, this won't stop Trump from attempting to frame immigrant crime as prominent and to lay blame for it at Biden's feet. Those close to the president say Biden has a major opening to parry that line of attack and to turn the tables back on his opponent. Former Bill Clinton adviser James Carville told Sargent that Biden could say to Trump: "When I took over from you, crime in the United States was rising. I inherited a rising crime rate. We are now in one of the greatest declines in crime we’ve had in modern American history."

"The public doesn’t know that," Carville said.

Biden is currently at the presidential Camp David retreat to prepare for the debate with his closest advisors. This includes mock debate sessions with aides playing the ex-president. Trump, in the meantime, is putting off traditional debate prep and is instead on the campaign trail in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on Saturday.

Dan Pfeiffer, who was a communications adviser to former President Barack Obama, encouraged Biden to pivot from Trump's attacks about migrant crime and instead "express concern about the victim and their family." He added that Biden could then put his opponent on the defensive by harping on "the chaos that Trump unleashed in our immigration system with his cruelty and incompetence."

The first debate of the 2024 cycle will be this Thursday, June 27. While general election debates are typically hosted by the Commission on Presidential Debates, this one will be hosted by CNN and televised from Atlanta.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

Across America, The Vast Majority Of Democrats Reject 'Woke' Excess

Across America, The Vast Majority Of Democrats Reject 'Woke' Excess

To hear some people tell it, the Democratic Party is overrun with far-left culture warriors preaching “identity politics” and what Kevin Drum calls “semi-insane levels of wokeness.”

No less an eminence than James Carville, the political consultant, recently sounded off on the theme to a New York Times columnist. Democrats, he warned, need to shed the image of being an “urban, coastal, arrogant party” indulging in “faculty lounge politics” and employing racialized code words like “Latinx” which no normal person of any ethnicity uses.

Do such persons exist? Absolutely. And many inhabit college liberal arts departments, where being persnickety about “gendered” language can reach near-comical levels. I’ll not soon forget being scolded from the audience at a college talk for using the word “murderess” to describe a character in my book Widow’s Web who’d committed two homicides.

So, is “murderer” an honorific, I wondered? (Indeed, I’d argue that “murderess” is a far stronger word, as it’s men that do most of the killing. Or would have argued, if the point had been worth making, which under the circumstances, it wasn’t.)

But I digress: Back to crackpot Democrats. Washington Post opinion writer Matt Bai recently published a column pronouncing himself “utterly repulsed from the mainstream of both parties”—Republicans because they’ve become “more a celebrity fan club than a political organization” that “would, if left to its own devices, destroy the foundation of the republic.”

And, Democrats because they’ve become what he calls “arbiters of language… constantly issuing Soviet-style edicts about which terms are acceptable and which aren’t…a tactic used for controlling the debate and delegitimizing critics.”

So one party’s gone fascist, while the other calls people bad names. And these things are equally objectionable?

Sounds like somebody’s been getting ugly emails.

Bai argues that by embracing the politics of racial identity, Democrats have become a sort of mirror image of white supremacists: “instead of trying to restore some obsolete notion of a White-dominated society, they seek vengeance under the guise of virtue.”

And this, in turn, means that persons like himself, indeed “the broad center of the American electorate--traditional conservatives and liberals both—no longer [have] a political home.”

To which my response is: Does this guy even read the newspapers? Because on the planet where I live, things basically work like this: Democrats reject extremists and vote them out; the other guys embrace them.

Take, for example, the single dumbest political slogan in recent American history: “Defund the Police.” Have Democrats, broadly speaking, endorsed it?

Well, President Joe Biden hasn’t. Quite the opposite. As Eric Levitz points out in New York magazine:

“Through the American Rescue Plan, Biden sent $350 billion in fiscal aid to states and cities. He then encouraged municipalities to invest those funds into expanding police departments. Nearly half of America’s 20 largest cities have followed Biden’s advice.”

In the wake of George Floyd’s murder, heavily Democratic Minneapolis put the question on the ballot. A proposal to replace the city’s police department with a “Department of Public Safety” lost decisively.

Even more reliably Democratic New York City has recently elected a new mayor: an ex-cop of the African-American persuasion who promises sterner and more efficient law enforcement everywhere he goes.

Which appears to be exactly what the Black community, broadly speaking, supports. Although most have few illusions about police brutality, it’s Black neighborhoods that bear the brunt of wild-west style shootouts in the streets between groups of armed hoodlums. Calling preachers and social workers rarely helps over the short term. Crusading lawyers on CNN denouncing everybody as racists aren’t much practical use either.

Sometimes, you’ve just got to call the cops. What’s needed aren’t fewer police officers, but more and better ones. The great majority of Democratic voters understand that.

Or consider San Francisco, Nancy Pelosi’s hometown and as loyally Democratic a constituency as exists in the USA. Voters there just removed three almost comically “woke” school board members in a recall election by margins of more than seventy percent.

Chinese-American voters in particular grew angry with a board which kept San Francisco schools closed due to Covid while schools opened successfully all across the country; which changed admissions policy at a prestigious high school from merit to a lottery (thereby removing the “prestige” part altogether); and which changed the names of schools commemorating George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, among other “racist” offenders.

‘It’s hard to escape the conclusion that a lot of San Franciscans have climbed off the woke bandwagon—or were never wholeheartedly on it” writes Gary Kamiya in The Atlantic.

In short, far from showing that Democratic voters even in liberal inner sanctums are eager to practice Carville’s feared “faculty lounge” politics, it proves the exact opposite. Maybe the party’s biggest problem isn’t so much its policies or its rank and file voters as the way people talk about it.

James Carville Vows To Raise Funds For Sinema Primary Challenger

James Carville Vows To Raise Funds For Sinema Primary Challenger

Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville, sounding a lot likeReal Time host Bill Maher, has been cautioning Democrats against being too “woke” or moving too far to the left in the 2022 midterms. But the 77-year-old Carville, in a surprising move, is now saying that he will fundraise for a Democratic primary challenger to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona in 2024 — specifically, Rep. Ruben Gallego.

In the U.S. Senate, two centrist Democrats who have been frequent obstacles to President Joe Biden’s economic agenda have been Sinema and Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Carville, during an interview with Vox published on January 27, was more critical of Sinema than of Manchin.

Carville told Vox, “Understand that Joe Manchin is a Roman Catholic Democrat in a state in which not a single county has voted Democrat (for president) since 2008. I repeat: not a single county has voted Democrat since 2008…. If Manchin runs for reelection, I’ll do everything I can to help him…. Now, the situation with Sinema in Arizona is an entirely different situation.”

Reprinted with permission from Alternet

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