Narrower GOP Majority Will Be Hell For Weakened Speaker Johnson
Democrats gained seats in the House of Representatives, narrowing an already small Republican majority for 2025. With a larger majority in the current Congress, Republican infighting left the chamber unable to pass legislation for much of the past two years.
California Republican Rep. John Duarte conceded on December 3 after the final count in the 13th District found Democratic challenger Adam Gray won by 187 votes, ending the final uncalled House race of the November 2024 election. With Gray’s win, Republicans have just a 220-215 majority for 2025, two seats closer than their 222-213 margin after the 2022 midterms and just three seats away from losing control.
With President-elect Donald Trump taking office on January 20 and a 53-47 Republican majority in the U.S. Senate starting in January, GOP leaders hope to pass an array of conservative policy changes in 2025.
But a series of resignations could temporarily leave the GOP with no margin for error until special elections are held in the new year.
Trump’s aborted pick for attorney general, Florida Republican Matt Gaetz, resigned his House seat on November 13 amid an ethics committee investigation into his alleged sexual misconduct. He has said he will not return to Congress in 2025.
Florida Rep. Michael Waltz is set to resign January 20 to become Trump’s national security adviser and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik is leaving to be Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations.
With just a 217-215 majority, even a single defection would leave the GOP unable to pass legislation.
Since the 2022 elections, the Republican majority in the House has repeatedly made headlines for being disarray.
In January 2023, Republicans were unable to muster the required majority to elect California Rep. Kevin McCarthy as House speaker for days, requiring 15 ballots.
The caucus’ planned “first two weeks” agenda stalled, and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) was only able to bring up about half of the 11 bills he promised would be “ready-to-go” in that time.
McCarthy’s tenure ended in October 2023, when right-wing members of the GOP successfully moved to remove him from the speakership. The party again deadlocked on a replacement, this time for three weeks. The party eventually settled on Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson.
Johnson’s tenure has thus far been no smoother. After passing almost no legislation in 2023, House Republicans repeatedly had to cancel announced votes because they could not garner a majority to agree on rules for debate or on the bills.
Despite Johnson’s promise to delay any recess until all 12 annual appropriations bills have passed, several have not passed the House as of early December.
Reprinted with permission from Michigan Independent.