Tag: nebraska
Do Kansas And Nebraska Polls Mean More Bad News For Trump?

Do Kansas And Nebraska Polls Mean More Bad News For Trump?

Saturday’s Iowa Selzer poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead in Iowa 47-44 isn’t the only poll suggesting that something big is happening in our country.

Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by an eight-point margin. If Selzer’s numbers hold up, it would make an 11-point swing toward Harris in the state.

In Kansas, the Kansas Speak poll by the Docking Institute at Fort Hays State University found Trump winning the state by a meager 5-point margin, 48-43. Trump won the state in 2020 by 15. If the poll is right, it would mark a 10-point shift, similar to Iowa.

For reference, in 2020 the poll predicted a 14.4 percent Trump victory. He won the state by 14.6 percent.

And Siena recently polled Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District for The New York Times, finding Harris beating Trump 54-42, or 12 points. Nebraska allocates a single electoral vote to the winner of each of the state’s three congressional districts (including its "blue dot" Omaha district), and Joe Biden won it 52-46 in 2020. If the Times is right, that’s a six-point shift to the left in yet another midwestern rural-ish district.

There is something happening in rural America, in exactly the kind of districts that Trump and Republicans are depending as the foundation of their electoral chances.

And it all comes down to women.

“Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin,” the Des Moines Register reported, digging into the Selzer poll’s crosstabs. “Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63 percent to 28 percent, while senior men favor her by just two percentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent.”

Those Kansas and Nebraska results only make sense if that same dynamic is playing out in the broader midwest.

And if it is? Look out, because this election will look a lot different than everyone has been assuming thus far.

Reprinted with permission from Daily Kos.

GOP Legislator Torpedoes Trump's Nebraska Electoral Gambit

GOP Legislator Torpedoes Trump's Nebraska Electoral Gambit

Nebraska is among the few states in the U.S. that splits its electoral votes, and the area around Omaha — which has one electoral vote — has been leaning Democrat in recent years.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has been urging Nebraska to abandon that system and switch to a winner-take-all format.

But Nebraska State Sen. Mike McDonnell, a former Democrat turned Republican, is, according to the New York Times, pushing back against the proposal.

In an official statement on Monday, September 23, McDonnell said, "In recent weeks, a conversation around whether to change how we allocate our Electoral College votes has returned to the forefront. I respect the desire of some of my colleagues to have this discussion, and I have taken time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue. After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change."

McDonnell, according to the Times, said he told Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen, "I will not change my long-held position and will oppose any attempted changes to our Electoral College system before the 2024 election."

The Nebraska Examiner's Aaron Sanderford notes that "McDonnell's no on winner-take-all leaves Republicans in Nebraska's officially nonpartisan legislature with no path to overcoming a promised filibuster unless a Democrat or nonpartisan senator defects."

"Part of the GOP urgency is wrapped in national polling that shows a close race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee," Sanderford reports. "Some political observers have argued the 2nd District could break a 269-269 Electoral College tie. Few Democrats were surprised that the fate of winner-take-all largely swung on McDonnell, a former Omaha fire union president who switched to the GOP this spring after facing political pushback from Democrats for backing abortion restrictions."

Sanderford adds, "Several said the abortion debate should have shown Republicans that McDonnell is largely immovable once he has made a controversial position clear. McDonnell said when he switched parties that he would not support winner-take-all. Others said he did what helped him most politically.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

As Nebraska Goes In 2024, So Could Go Maine

As Nebraska Goes In 2024, So Could Go Maine

Every state is different. Nebraska is quite different. It is one of only two states that doesn't use the winner-take-all system in presidential elections. Along with Maine, it allocates its Electoral College votes to reflect the results in each of its congressional districts.

In 2020, Donald Trump lost the Omaha-based congressional district while winning Nebraska's other two. That cost him one electoral vote. In a very close election, that one vote could matter. Hence, Trump and his people have been pressuring Nebraska to adopt "winner-take-all," whereby whatever candidate received the most votes statewide would get all five of Nebraska's electoral votes.

This move is especially bold because in 2016, Trump did win Omaha's district. One supposes he could win it again the old-fashioned way, by getting more people to vote for him than for Joe Biden. As he's proved in terrifying ways, Trump is not a stickler for honoring the will of the people.

Don Bacon, the Republican representing the Omaha district, supports the Trump camp's efforts to change the state's method for assigning electoral votes. "I think it undermines the influence of Nebraska," he told CNN.

The opposite is more likely. Were Nebraska to embrace "winner-take-all," neither candidate would have great incentive to campaign there at all. As for the politics of it, one strains to understand how pushing to deprive his constituents the right to allocate their electoral vote is going to win Bacon love in his purple district.

So far these efforts have failed, even in the GOP-dominated state legislature. Good for them.

But pressure remains. Nebraska's current Republican governor, Jim Pillen, has offered to support a special legislative session to move the state to winner-take-all. "I will sign (winner-take-all) into law the moment the legislature gets it to my desk," he vowed.

However, Nebraska's unique political culture is deservedly a point of pride. There could be blowback on those who help outsiders try to change it.

For example, Nebraska is the only state with a one-chamber legislature. This dates back to 1934, when Nebraskans voted to replace a governing body with both a House and a Senate with a unicameral one. Party affiliations are not listed on the ballot.

This reform was pushed through by George W. Norris, a devout Republican. Norris argued that there was no logic in having a two-house legislature. On the contrary, it cost the taxpayers more money and made politicians less accountable to the people.

"The greatest evil of two-house legislature is its institution of the conference committee," Norris wrote in his autobiography. That's where power brokers could fiddle with passed bills.

"There the 'bosses' and the special interests and the monopolies get in their secret work behind the scenes," Norris wrote. "There the elimination of a sentence or paragraph, or even a word, may change the meaning of the entire law."

Meanwhile, were "reliably Democratic" Maine to adopt a winner-take-all system, that would cancel any Republican advantage in a Nebraska that did likewise. Maine's rural 2nd congressional district favored Trump both in 2016 and 2020.

Adding intrigue, Maine's House recently narrowly voted to have the state join an interstate compact that would assign its Electoral College votes to whatever presidential candidate won the national popular vote. So far 16 states have joined the compact, which would go into effect only if the members have enough electoral votes to determine the outcome.

In 2020, Biden won over seven million more popular votes than Trump did. And in 2016, Hillary Clinton comfortably beat Trump in the popular vote by three million.

It would not seem in Republicans' interests to encourage states to change how they count electoral votes. After all, as Nebraska goes, so could Maine.

Reprinted with permission from Creators.

Trump Campaign Leaves Thousands Stranded And Freezing, Several Hospitalized

Trump Campaign Leaves Thousands Stranded And Freezing, Several Hospitalized

At least seven supporters were taken to hospitals after Donald Trump's rally in Omaha Tuesday night, when temperatures plunged and buses intended to return them the several miles to the parking lot were unable to get through, leaving people stranded in freezing temperatures.

Trump took off in Air Force One around 9 pm local time, and the last of his supporters didn't make it out until after midnight. Tweets from the scene reported elderly Trump supporters getting cold and weak and disoriented as police struggled to help them.

Beyond the extremely poor planning, two things stand out. One, Nebraska has a more than 20 percent positivity rate on COVID-19 tests, and Trump was there for a crowded rally with mostly mask-less attendees. Naturally, he used this potential super-spreader event to claim "we're making that final turn" on the virus.

Two, in the final week before Election Day, the Republican incumbent was campaigning in Nebraska. Now, yes, Nebraska divides its electoral votes by congressional district, and one of them is up for grabs. But that tells us that Trump thinks his path to victory might depend on a single vote.

And in fighting for that single vote, Trump showed what a well-oiled campaign concerned for its supporters he is running.





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