Tag: senate
Why Trump's Massive Tax Gift To The Rich Makes Some Republicans Nervous

Why Trump's Massive Tax Gift To The Rich Makes Some Republicans Nervous

Despite Republicans keeping the House of Representatives and flipping control of the Senate, some are acknowledging that extending President-elect Donald Trump's tax cuts in 2025 will be a tall order.

In a recent Politico article, several Republican members of Congress expressed worry that renewing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TJCA) of 2017 could be difficult given its $4.6 trillion price tag. While the initial legislation came with an estimated cost of $1.5 trillion over 10 years, Politico reported that extending the approximately 40 provisions in the law would come in at a cost of $4 trillion over that same time period, with another $600 billion in interest.

The bulk of those tax cuts overwhelmingly benefit the rich. According to CNN, an analysis from July found that if the TJCA was extended next year, the richest five percent of taxpayers would reap almost half the benefits. Those making $450,000 and up would see their incomes increase by 3.2 percent, while the richest one percent — who make $1 million a year or more – would get an average tax cut of nearly $70,000. And the top 0.1 percent richest Americans would see a whopping $280,000 average reduction in their own taxes.

Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL), who sits on the House Ways and Means Committee (which oversees tax-related matters) was skeptical that the GOP would be able to easily pass the new tax cuts without a big fight even among members of his own party.

"That’s going to be the biggest challenge for the [House Republican] conference," he said.

Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX), who chairs the House Budget Committee, is also wary of any new tax cuts that will add to the federal deficit. In order to make the new round of tax cuts deficit-neutral, Arrington is pondering pairing them with cuts to Medicaid (the health insurance program for the poorest Americans), repealing green energy tax breaks and increasing taxes on corporate profits booked overseas that get repatriated. But House Ways and Means chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) told Politico he was less concerned about paying for a new round of tax cuts.

"“Look at history — were the Bush tax cuts paid for?” He said.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

Hakeem Jeffries

If Not For Swing State's GOP Gerrymander, Democrats Would Control House

While Democrats lost control of the White House and the Senate in the 2024 election, they might well have flipped control of the House of Representatives were it not for a controversial move by Republican lawmakers in one battleground state.

In a Wednesday tweet, Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-NC) claimed that "North Carolina's gerrymandered maps changed the nation." The freshman congressman — who announced in 2023 that he would not seek a second term — further argued: "The three seats stolen from Democrats (mine included) cost Democrats control of the U.S. House of Representatives."

"Without a brutal mid-census NC GOP gerrymander @RepJeffries would be the next Speaker in a 218-217 House," Nickel added, mentioning the official handle of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) in his tweet.

Nickel's opinion was also shared by NBC News reporter Sahil Kapur, who posted to Bluesky that the current partisan makeup of the House as of this week stands at 220 Republican seats and 214 Democratic seats. In the one contest yet to be decided in California's 13th Congressional District, Rep. John Duarte (R-CA is narrowly trailing his Democratic opponent Adam Gray by roughly 200 votes. If Gray prevails, that would put Democrats at 215 seats.

However, the House's Republican majority becomes even more tenuous after the 119th Congress is sworn in on January 3. At that point, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) will officially leave the House. When President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20, Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) will join his administration as National Security Advisor. And if Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), currently House Republican Conference chair, is confirmed as the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, the GOP could end up with the tiniest of majorities.

"Could be a 220-215 majority, which shrinks to 217-215 early 2025 when you subtract Gaetz, Stefanik, Waltz," Kapur wrote. "The GOP gerrymander in North Carolina (flipped 3 Dem seats) saved their majority."

The gerrymander went through last fall, when North Carolina Republicans ignored court-drawn maps in 2022 to propose new redistricting maps that effectively turned four previously Democratic districts into districts that heavily favored Republicans. Even though Democratic Governor Roy Cooper vetoed the maps, the GOP supermajority overrode him, making the maps official for the 2024 election.

Lindsey Prather, a Democratic lawmaker in the Tar Heel State, blasted her Republican colleagues in a tweet, and called for an independent redistricting process to propose fairer maps.

""I want to take a second & acknowledge the sheer insanity that is [North Carolina politics]," Rep. Prather posted. "We need nonpartisan, independent redistricting. We shouldn't be waiting w/bated breath for maps that were drawn in secret. This shouldn't be exciting. It should be a boring thing that happens every 10 years."

The new maps will likely remain in place until after the 2030 Census. However, Democrats were able to break the Republican supermajority in the Tar Heel State legislature this November despite Republicans' wins at the federal level. And Attorney General Josh Stein won North Carolina's gubernatorial election, keeping the governor's mansion in Democratic hands through at least 2028.

Reprinted with permission from Alternet.

Trump and Biden

In A Democracy, There Are No Permanent Defeats

In 1994, Republicans won a sweeping victory that cost Democrats control of the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years. Republicans took an eye-popping 54 seats, leading many to conclude that this was a permanent political realignment.

Two years later, Bill Clinton won reelection with 379 electoral college votes to Bob Dole's 159.

A loss, however painful, is not the end of the world. Every election result is provisional. There are multiple examples in recent memory of the American electorate delivering victories to a party and then swiftly reversing course. Following George W. Bush's 2004 success (in which opposition to same-sex marriage was thought to have played a big part in GOP turnout), Democrats fretted that they might need to change their approach to social issues if they ever hoped to return to power. Two years later, Republicans lost control of the House. Two years after that, in 2008, the country turned to Barack Obama, handing Democrats control of the Senate as well. In 2010, the GOP triumphed, gaining 63 seats in the House, yet in 2012, Obama won reelection comfortably.

This is not to minimize the seriousness of the mistake voters have made this year, just to keep some perspective. There are many turns of the wheel.

The Democrats will do themselves some good if this loss causes them to reconsider their boutique views on immigration, public safety, trans athletes and other matters, but the thumping rightward shift in the electorate between 2020 and 2024 suggests to me that this election really came down (mostly) to inflation, with a side of immigration, rather than an embrace of Trump or Trumpism.

Most voters decide based upon their own financial condition. This year, 68 percent of voters rated the economy as "not so good" or "poor." Yes, the other economic indicators were great, but 75 percent said inflation had inflicted moderate or severe hardship on them. Compared with Biden in 2020, Harris lost ground with nearly every demographic — urban, suburban, rural, you name it.

It's impossible to gauge how big a part racism and sexism played in Harris' performance; few will admit such motivations. Harris performed a bit worse with Hispanic women than Biden did. Was that closet sexism? Doubtful. Nor does it seem plausible that so many young women who voted for Biden switched to Trump out of misogyny. Only 26 percent of voters were satisfied (19 percent) or enthusiastic (seven percent) about how things are going in the country, whereas 43 percent were dissatisfied and 29 percent were angry. This underscores the importance of people's personal financial condition. They will hire a creep if they think he'll improve their personal prospects. Most voters neither understand nor particularly care about the rule of law or foreign policy (beyond war and peace).

Much will change before the next election — and yes, there will be more elections. The winning party nearly always overreads its mandate and goes too far, prompting a backlash at the polls. The president's party typically loses seats in off-year elections, so expect a rebuke in 2026.

But Democrats cannot just wait for the election cycle to solve their problems. There are a number of lessons they should take to heart from this year's results: 1) the abortion issue has run its course as a motivator in national elections; 2) Hispanic voters cannot be taken for granted as part of the Democratic coalition; 3) woke postures like taxpayer-funded sex change operations for incarcerated immigrants are toxic; and 4) big federal spending programs don't deliver immediate political dividends.

Of all people, Joe Biden should have understood that passing big bills like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act would not be noticed by voters in time for 2024. He was vice president when the Affordable Care Act passed and witnessed that not only was Obama not rewarded for it, but Democrats lost the House in 2010. Only much later, after it had been fully implemented and people began to enjoy the benefits (and Republicans failed to come up with an alternative), did the program become popular.

Both the IRA and the infrastructure bill, ironically, contain lavish spending for rural and Trump-friendly parts of the country that will begin to come online just in time for Trump to take credit for them. The legislation may or may not have been good policy, but it's important for Democrats to recognize that passing big bills doesn't translate into votes — at least not right away.

The Democratic Party has suffered a setback, not a wipeout. The country remains closely divided. Democrats still hold nearly half the seats in the Senate and (depending on the races still outstanding) nearly half of the House. Twenty-three states have Democratic governors. Democratic officeholders need to gird their loins for the avalanche of lies, scandals, outrages and betrayals that a second Trump term is sure to deliver. They must prepare to educate voters about the consequences of Trump's tariffs (which are taxes), deportations, tax cuts, vaccine misinformation and whatever other insane policies emanate from MAGA Washington.

There's a place for autopsies and wound licking, but it's soon time to move forward.

Reprinted with permission from Creators.

Senate

Will The Senate Save Us From Trump's Cabinet Of Horrors?

Among the sharpest conservative opponents of fascism is George T. Conway III. During a Nov. 14 appearance on CNN, the attorney and activist offered this pithy description of Tulsi Gabbard, Matt Gaetz and Bobby Kennedy, the worst nominees (so far) to Donald Trump's cabinet:

"If you were seeking to destroy the country, the Gabbard, Gaetz, and RFK Jr. picks were exactly the ones you'd make. And that's not surprising. Because Trump is a malignant narcissist, and malignant narcissists, subconsciously or consciously, do seek to destroy." (I should note here that Conway is a friend who wrote the foreword to my most recent book, The Longest Con: How Grifters, Swindlers and Frauds Hijacked American Conservatism.)

There may be even more sinister explanations for what Trump is doing — he appears subservient to a hostile foreign power — but Conway's warning about the potential impact of his bizarre choices is no exaggeration. Many Americans, probably including the ignorant and arrogant Trump, have little idea what the major federal agencies do or why maintaining their operations is so essential to protecting our families, livelihoods, and security. They may be about to find out the very hardest way.

As many observers have noted, it is difficult to imagine a more absurd appointee than Gaetz to head the Department of Justice, which has jurisdiction over the FBI as well. He has no relevant experience whatsoever, except as an investigative target.

Like his master Trump, former Florida Rep. Gaetz publicly vowed vengeance on the FBI for daring to probe his alleged crimes, which ranged from drug offenses and theft of campaign funds to the sexual trafficking of teenage girls. But the nation's premier law enforcement agency has responsibilities that range far beyond probing the misconduct of a sleazy congressman. While Gaetz, Trump and many of their cronies may be perfectly content to disrupt the FBI's probes of public corruption, thus leaving them unmolested, the rest of us would surely suffer if it is no longer able to investigate violent gangs, prevent terrorist bombings and cyberattacks, and maintain a counterintelligence cordon against enemy spies (although that would surely gratify those Trump fans in the Kremlin).

The thugs, traffickers, and spies apprehended by the FBI are prosecuted by DOJ attorneys, either in Washington or by U.S. attorneys around the country, whose operations certainly need no interference from the likes of Gaetz or anyone whom he might choose as his underlings.

So when Gaetz proclaims his desire to dismantle the FBI and DOJ, he may have his own petty reasons — but the impact of this clown on the rule of law, public order and Americans' ability to conduct our lives in peace and security could be devastating.

In certain ways Gabbard resembles Gaetz. She too is a peculiar and discredited figure with no discernible ability to perform the role assigned her by Trump, overseeing the world's largest and most vital intelligence network. That network includes the CIA, the National Security Agency, the intelligence divisions of the armed forces, and the FBI (which she can assist Gaetz in wrecking). She is a veteran and a former member of Congress, but perhaps just as important is her pedigree as an acolyte of a destructive cult that spun off from the Hare Krishna organization.

Worse still, she has repeatedly demonstrated her allegiance to some of this era's bloodiest dictators — not just Vladimir Putin, whose propaganda about Ukraine she tried to spread, but Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian despot, mass murderer, and Russian client, to whom she provided similar assistance. Russian state television, which has often garlanded Gabbard with favorable coverage, is celebrating her appointment — but allied intelligence agencies around the world are being forced to reconsider their ties with American counterparts, potentially crippling our capacity to obtain information vital to U.S. national security.

Kennedy, the conspiracy monger and anti-vax profiteer, presents a different kind of menace to our future. He is a proved and inveterate liar, who now claims he isn't an opponent of vaccination when there are hours of video and other indisputable records confirming that fact. More than once he has sat stone-faced while someone played that proof in his presence, and then continued to lie.

Should he actually be confirmed as secretary of Health and Human Services, with jurisdiction over such agencies as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration, and the National Institutes of Health, the likely damage he will inflict on our health and safety is incalculable. We know what he is capable of doing — what he yearns to do — because he has left a legacy of human wreckage over the past two decades. His campaign against vaccinations during the COVID-19 pandemic helped to foster the fears that left millions vulnerable and eventually dead. Although Kennedy alone cannot be held accountable for those excess deaths, as statisticians call them, he definitely did his worst.

We may somehow avoid another pandemic, despite the imminent threat from bird flu, but Kennedy's anti-science ideology could soon bring on an epidemic of measles, if he can get the vaccination rate low enough. He and his anti-vax cronies achieved that deadly goal in Samoa several years ago — with lethal consequences for dozens of little children. If he can scale that campaign here, the toll could be in the tens of thousands.

Bobby also seemingly aims to increase tooth decay among children by doing away with water fluoridation. He plans to undermine our decades-long effort to cure cancer and other modern plagues with a mad eight-year "moratorium" on scientific research. He has a roster of likeminded kooks he wants to name to top positions in the federal health agencies — and it's mostly comprised of far-right quacks, discredited academics and supplement grifters, with a couple of neo-Nazis sprinkled among them. If he is confirmed, he will bring this rogue's gallery with him.

What stands between our country and the national wreckage portended by these abominable Trump appointees is the U.S. Senate. There is no more important function outlined in the Constitution for that deliberative body, and there has never been a more urgent need for senators to stand up and protect the nation. There are only a handful of Republicans with the courage, integrity and wisdom to stop this catastrophic process — but only a handful need to act. Nothing less than the fate of the nation is at stake.

Joe Conason is founder and editor-in-chief of The National Memo. He is also editor-at-large of Type Investigations, a nonprofit investigative reporting organization formerly known as The Investigative Fund. His latest book is The Longest Con: How Grifters, Swindlers and Frauds Hijacked American Conservatism.

Reprinted with permission from Creators.

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