Why Trump Will Wield Superpower Status In The New Middle East
While the Biden administration hasn’t been able to turn the tide for Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression, it has had better luck further south in the Middle East. Donald Trump will inherit the results of President Joe Biden’s support of Israel’s war on Hezbollah in Lebanon, its throttling of Syria’s military capability since rebels marched into Damascus ten days ago, and the damage Israel did to Iran’s military and its weapons manufacturing capabilities when it struck Iran in late October.
In less than two months, Israel has completely upset the balance of power in the Middle East, and it has done it from the air using stealth technology developed and deployed by the United States. Israel used stealth jets when it took out Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of Hezbollah’s top command at the militant group’s headquarters in the south of Beirut on September 28. Israeli stealth jets were used when they launched hundreds of strikes on Hezbollah military targets, knocking out all of its rocket sites that threatened the north of Israel.
But most importantly, Israel used both stand-off guided missiles fired from Iraqi airspace and heavier munitions dropped by U.S.-manufactured F-35 and F-15 jets when it retaliated against Iran for firing nearly 200 missiles at Israel on October 1 of this year. Israel used at least 100 jet aircraft to strike Iranian military targets in the first such attack on Iran by Israel in the history of the conflict between the two adversaries.
According to the Pentagon, the Israeli strikes on Iran crippled its missile manufacturing factories to such an extent that it will take Iran at least a year before they can begin producing missiles again. Israel struck other Iranian weapons facilities as well, including its drone manufacturing plants. Iran has been a major supplier of both missiles and drones to Russia in its war on Ukraine.
According to CNN and other news sources, Israel was able to destroy all of Iran’s S-300 Russian-supplied air defense batteries. “Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran,” Israel’s military spokesman Daniel Hagari told the press after the Israeli strike on Iran.
What this means, without saying it out loud, is that Israel can now strike Iran with impunity, anytime, and anywhere it wants. Iran is blind to Israel’s use of stealth attack bombers and because its air defenses have been largely destroyed, unable to prevent another strike by air from Israel for the foreseeable future. Stephen Bryen, a former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Trade Security Policy, who writes a Substack column entitled “Weapons and Strategy,” put it this way: “Israel used the F-35, which is a stealth fighter, to knock out Iran’s air defenses. That enabled F-15s to go in and destroy other targets – because now the Iranians couldn’t fight back.”
According to reports by CNN and The Guardian, Israel refrained from hitting Iran’s oil infrastructure and its nuclear facilities…at least for now.
For all of the more than 40 years of the existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel and Iran have largely fought a shadow war, with Iran using proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas to attack Israel. With Hamas and Hezbollah at least for the time being largely destroyed and Iran’s military capability to launch a counterstrike damaged, Israel has emerged as the sole superpower in the Middle East.
CNN quoted Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, saying that Iran fears that “if they don’t do something now Israel will start treating Iran as they did with Syria, which means every once in a while, the Israelis will strike.”
Speaking of which, Israel is estimated to have struck more than 500 military targets inside Syria since rebels ousted the government of Bashar al-Assad on December 8. The attacks appear to be continuing. Israel has continued its attacks most recently with a massive strike on Syria’s weapons storage facility near the coastal city of Tartous, where Russia maintained a naval base until moving all of its ships from the port after the fall of Assad.
Russia is said to be “in talks” with the nascent regime that is in the process of establishing a government in Syria. “We are in contact with representatives of the forces that are currently in control of the situation in the country, and all of this will be determined in the course of dialogue,” Dimitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman told reporters in a call from Moscow earlier today.
If that doesn’t sound like a realignment of power in the Middle East, I don’t know what is. The government of Russia’s client-state, Syria, gone. Russia’s ally, Iran, severely damaged by Israeli airstrikes. Russia’s terror proxy, Hezbollah, nearly destroyed. Meanwhile, Israel is talking about establishing settlements in the territory it occupies in the Golan heights, and there is nobody who can tell them to stop.
What Donald Trump will do with the situation he inherits in the Middle East is not known, although he has made no secret of his willingness, even eagerness, to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities. With Putin in a stalemate in Ukraine and his forces pushed out of Syria, if Netanyahu remains in power in Israel, and Trump takes power in this country, there won’t be a balance of power in the Middle East anymore. Donald Trump, for better or worse, will be in the driver’s seat.
Reprinted with permission from Lucian Truscott Newsletter.
