Some observations:

• Vance pivoted away from every opportunity to defend Donald Trump, focusing his attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris instead. I bet Trump didn’t love that.
• Walz focused both on defending the Biden-Harris administration and attacking Trump.
• Vance leaned heavily into the “Why didn’t Harris fix things the last four years?” narrative that Trump was supposed to deploy during his one debate with Harris. The problem with that line, of course, is that Trump didn’t accomplish all the things he claimed he’d do, like build a wall paid for by Mexico, when he was actually president. Does it matter? Nope. But it’s a safe attack line, and one that is difficult to defend with “Republicans control the Senate and sabotaged the bipartisan border deal.” In politics, if you’re explaining, you’re losing.
• As you’d expect, Republicans are losing their minds over CBS’ mild fact checks, because they love screaming “Why do they keep pointing out our lies?” Vance himself whined, “The rules were that you were not going to fact-check me.” That’ll be brutally memed and is a top moment from the debate, akin to George H.W. Bush looking at his watch.
• Media false equivalency at work: Walz misstating exactly when he was in China 35 years ago is totally the same thing as Vance endangering an entire immigrant community in Springfield, Ohio, by lying about them eating their neighbors’ pets.
• Walz crushed the segment on abortion, with Vance literally admitting that women don’t trust Republicans on abortion. Vance also lied about his past support for a national abortion ban. Fortuitously, the moderators and candidates lingered on the issue for an extended period of time. The issue is so toxic for Republicans that Trump quite literally lost his mind on his Truth Social:

EVERYONE KNOWS I WOULD NOT SUPPORT A FEDERAL ABORTION BAN, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, AND WOULD, IN FACT, VETO IT, BECAUSE IT IS UP TO THE STATES TO DECIDE BASED ON THE WILL OF THEIR VOTERS (THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE!). LIKE RONALD REAGAN BEFORE ME, I FULLY SUPPORT THE THREE EXCEPTIONS FOR RAPE, INCEST, AND THE LIFE OF THE MOTHER. I DO NOT SUPPORT THE DEMOCRATS RADICAL POSITION OF LATE TERM ABORTION LIKE, AS AN EXAMPLE, IN THE 7TH, 8TH, OR 9TH MONTH OR, IN CASE THERE IS ANY QUESTION, THE POSSIBILITY OF EXECUTION OF THE BABY AFTER BIRTH. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

• The gun segment offered a shockingly civil and substantive discussion on the problem of gun violence. The country would be a lot better off if that was the energy lawmakers in Congress brought to the issue. Also, Walz had the best line in that exchange.
• Vance quite successfully sold himself as a reasonable, human-like politician, while Walz is naturally nice, which is why he’s so popular nationally. The two wanted to seem nice and reasonable. Problem is, only Walz is that; Vance quite literally got the job by promising Trump he’d overturn the election given the chance.
• Walz’s defense of the Affordable Care Act was stellar. Vance was boxed in by Trump’s “concepts of a plan” flub. He had some BS lined up about how Democrats fearmonger about a second Trump presidency and how Trump saved the law, but the reality is that Trump was a single vote away from repealing the ACA. Had Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) not unexpectedly flipped, we’d have no ACA today. We don’t need to fearmonger when we have reality showing us what will happen.

• This gets its own bullet point: Vance claimed Trump saved the ACA. Yes, he really said that.
• Debate moderators challenged Vance on his undemocratic efforts to overturn the 2020 elections. Vance’s revisionist response was beyond gaslighting. It was a completely different timeline paired with a transition to crying about made up liberal “censorship” as the real danger to democracy. If nothing else, this was more disqualifying than anything else Vance said. And as Vance refused to admit that Trump lost in 2020, Walz nailed him with a hilarious, “That’s a damning non-answer!”
• I don’t pretend to understand how people perceive candidates. Al Gore smashed George W. Bush in 2000, and people decided they’d rather “have a beer” with Bush. If that test applies in Tuesday’s debate, Walz is quite easily the more likable candidate, far more so than the fast-talking emo makeup-wearing Yale lawyer.
• If this debate has any impact on the race, it won’t be because of those watching it to the end (political junkies), or an increasingly ridiculous punditry. It will be because of the meme war. And as such, I’m guessing the Zoomers will have a lot more material to mock Vance than Walz.

But really, watch the polling stay exactly the same all the way through Election Day.

Guys, this thing is going to be won on effort. Let’s finish strong!