“Fortunately, we’ve had some very good polls over the last fairly short period of time,” Trump said. “Rasmussen came out today with substantially leading,” he continued.

That’s true: Rasmussen Reports does have a new poll giving Trump a 5-point lead. But Rasmussen Reports is the notoriously conservative and inaccurate pollster that 538 dropped from its polling averages and forecasts earlier this year. Meanwhile, the separate and more credible RMG Research, run by Scott Rasmussen, had Harris leading by five points as recently as six days ago.

But Trump was on a roll.

“Others came out today that we’re leading and in some cases substantially,” he boasted. “CNBC came out also with a poll that has us leading, and leading fairly big in swing states.”

Trump’s lead in the head-to-head with Harris in the CNBC poll is 2 points. It is a national poll and does not provide data from swing states. Never mind—in his head, it’s true.

“Some polls I’m leading very big in swing states,” Trump insisted.

In reality, no, he is not. On Thursday, the Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for three swing states, changing them from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up":

According to 538’s poll aggregates, Harris has an edge over Trump in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and she’s running neck and neck with Trump in North Carolina.

At the end of last week, Harris had the lead in a dozen separate national polls.

The surge Harris experienced after President Joe Biden stepped aside and endorsed her as the Democratic candidate wasn’t a blip or a bounce, either. It’s sustained, and it has changed this race.

And Trump can’t take it.