The fact that Trump is viewed unfavorably before he even takes office is a warning sign for his tenure. The start of a presidential term is usually when a president is at their high-water mark of approval.

When President Joe Biden took office in January 2021, 51 percent of registered voters approved of the job he was doing on the transition, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll at the time.

In the first two months after Barack Obama was sworn in as president, around 60 percent of Americans approved of the job he was doing, according to 538’s historical polling average. And when he was sworn in again four years later, his approval rating was around 53 percent.

The NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll has other warning signs for Trump.

Just 31percent of Americans say the tariff policy Trump plans to enact would help the economy. That should be a flashing red warning light for Trump, showing that Americans will likely blame him if those tariffs cause prices to skyrocket, as economists expect.

What’s more, 62 percent of Americans oppose Trump’s plan to pardon people who either pleaded guilty or were convicted of crimes for their role in the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

It’s not just Trump who is unpopular among voters. Trump's Cabinet nominees are also underwater.

Pete Hegseth, Trump's pick to lead the Department of Defense, has just a 19 percent approval rating in the NPR/PBS News/Marist College survey. And the survey was conducted before Hegseth’s confirmation hearing, when Democratic senators laid bare the nominee’s abhorrent behavior of alleged sexual assault, womanizing, on-the-job drinking, and misogynistic remarks.

Twenty-six percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of Hegseth, with the remaining 55 percent not knowing who he is or having no opinion of him.

However, Trump’s co-president, Elon Musk, is broadly unpopular. Only 37 percent of Americans have a favorable view of him, while 46 percent view him unfavorably, according to the poll. That’s also a warning sign for Trump, who is allowing Musk to hog the spotlight and even letting the awkward billionaire occupy an office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, which is next door to the White House.

Ultimately, while it’s awful that Trump will be sworn in for a second time, polling suggests that he will have no honeymoon phase and that backlash to his agenda could be a serious problem for Republicans in the 2026 midterms.