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COVID-19 vaccine

Why You Can’t Get A Coronavirus Vaccine

Reprinted with permission from DCReport

If you're one of the many millions of Americans who can't get a COVID-19 vaccine, know that Donald Trump never had a vaccination distribution plan for the country.

Though COVID-19 raged throughout Trump's last year in office, he did nothing to prepare for vaccine distribution. Consider that lost time, less lives saved.

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Donald Trump, Jeffrey Epstein

Child Sex Trafficking Prosecutions Plummet Under Trump

Reprinted with permission from DCReport

Add child sex traffickers to Trump's basket of deplorables. Under his watch, federal prosecutions of that class of criminals have declined significantly.

In Trump's four years in office, both federal prosecutions against child sex traffickers, and the proportion of criminal referrals for child sex trafficking on which charges were brought, have both dropped, according to new data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC), a nonpartisan research effort by Syracuse University. That's a total reversal of how things were handled under President Obama; numbers on both counts climbed steadily.

This isn't surprising, considering what we know about Donald J. Trump. He once walked into the changing room of a Miss Teen USA beauty pageant while contestants – some as young as 15 – were in various stages of undress.



Trump addresses the contestants of the Miss Universe 2010 competition in Las Vegas. (Miss Universe Organization)

Trump claims that's his right. "I'll go backstage before a show and everyone's getting dressed," Trump told Howard Stern on his radio show. "I'm allowed to go in, because I'm the owner of the pageant and therefore I'm inspecting it… 'Is everyone OK'? You know, they're standing there with no clothes. 'Is everybody OK?' And you see these incredible looking women, and so I sort of get away with things like that."

He is known to have partied with the late child rapist Jeffrey Epstein – once alone with him and 28 'girls' at his Mar-a-Lago estate in the early 1990s. He once said of the poster boy for child sex trafficking and abuse, "I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific Guy. He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side."

Earlier this year when law enforcement finally snagged Epstein's partner in crime, Ghislaine Maxwell, who allegedly baited, groomed and molested underage girls herself, Trump said at a press conference on the coronavirus pandemic that he "wished her well."

And these are only the stories we know about.

So, while it's not shocking his administration has turned its back on the growing problem of child sex trafficking – just last year only 37 percent of cases were prosecuted. It is unconscionable.

Trump's scorecard against child sex traffickers is the worst in two decades. During the Obama administration, almost half of all criminal referrals were prosecuted. That compares with the Bush administration which prosecuted 46 percent. Trump's dismal record shows prosecutors chose to file charges in just 43 percent of cases over the past four years.

The reason given by federal attorneys for not prosecuting cases in fiscal year 2020? The good ole law-enforcement get-out-of-jail-free plum of too little evidence, according to TRAC. And if that didn't fit the bill, attorneys cited "a need to prioritize federal resources and interests."

It's too bad the clock's running out on this election. Because Trump's new campaign slogan could be, "We care about the wall, not the small."

Democrats Poised To Win Full Control Of Statehouses

Democrats Poised To Win Full Control Of Statehouses

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.

 

Two weeks from the highly anticipated midterms and Democrats could see several states go pure blue from gubernatorial races down to the state House elections.

There are currently 26 states in the country that are Republican trifectas, meaning the GOP holds power from the governorship to the majority in the state Senate and Congress. Democrats hold eight trifectas today. But there are several states in play with more seen as potential new Democratic strongholds from New Hampshire to Colorado than as potential Republican targets.

State legislatures can wield incredible power, from the ability to shape redistricting to gun laws and abortion rights. In fact, the winners from this election will have the once-a-decade chance to redraw congressional maps following the 2020 Census. And as the Trump administration continues to tear down the federal government, states become more powerful.

In the midterms, Democrats are running more state legislative candidates than they have in the past 20 years. There are 5,349 Democratic candidates this year compared with 4,741 Republicans, according to an article by The Washington Post. Republicans had run more candidates than Democrats in the past six election cycles. And this year, Democrats are even ahead of the number of Republican candidates from 2010, which saw huge gains for the GOP at the state and federal level.

In a best-case scenario, Democrats could pick up 17 new trifecta states, according to an analysis by Ballotpedia. That would leave the Republicans with 13. But it is more likely that Democrats pick up between five and 11 new trifectas. Here are the states that are the most vulnerable for a Democratic takeover:

Colorado: With term-limited Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) stepping down the governorship is still seen as leaning Democratic. There are 17 seats up for election this year with 10 held by Republicans, according to an analysis by The Washington Post. Democrats just need to flip two Senate seats to make this state a trifecta. Democrats hold a majority in the House already.

Florida: With term-limited Republican governor Rick Scott vying for a U.S. Senate seat, the gubernatorial race is considered a toss-up. To gain the majority of the Senate, Democrats need to take four more seats, representing a 20% gain. And for the state House, Democrats would need to flip 17 new seats, a 14% gain.

Illinois: Though currently held by a Republican, Bruce Rauner, the governorship is rated “lean Democratic” this election. The House and Senate are both controlled by Democrats, so if they can hang on to their majority and flip the governorship, they would make this a trifecta.

Michigan: Another term-limited governor stepping down, Republican Rick Snyder, the governorship is rated “lean Democrat.” To take a majority in the Senate, Democrats need to flip nine seats or almost 24%. Republicans hold a supermajority here and have had control of the Senate for more than 25 years. To take over the House, they need to take nine seats there as well, but that’s an 8% change. More than a fifth of the incumbents can’t seek re-election because of term limits so Democrats have a good chance to take the House.

New Hampshire: The Republican governorship is rated lean Republican this election, though incumbent Chris Sununu is considered one of the country’s most popular governors, according to The New York Times. Democrats need to flip three out of 24 seats to take a majority in the Senate, and 22 seats in the House, representing a 6% change. It’s also worth noting that 17% of Republicans serve districts that voted for Clinton in 2016.

Wisconsin: Incumbent Gov. Scott Walker (R) is up for re-election but the race is considered a toss-up at this point. Democrats need to win two more seats this election, a 12% change, to gain a Senate majority and 15 more House seats, representing a 15% gain.

There are two states that Ballotpedia considers moderately possible for Democrats to pick up: New Mexico and New York. It also considers Ohio a high possibility, though other outlets do not.

And there are two more states that Ballotpedia sees as “slight possibilities”: Montana and North Carolina.

Connecticut, meanwhile, is the one Democratic trifecta that is highly vulnerable to a Republican takeover or at least turning it purple and busting up the trifecta. The outgoing Democratic governorship of Daniel Malloy, who is stepping down after two terms, is rated a toss-up for this election. The state Senate is currently a tie and for a majority; Republicans would need to flip only one seat. For control of the House, they would need to flip just five seats, representing a 3% gain.

Two states seen as slight possibilities for new GOP trifectas are Minnesota and Vermont.

In the best-case scenario for Republicans in the upcoming election, they could end up with 37 state trifectas, leaving just three Democratic ones.

In between, there are six toss-up states that could go pure red, blue or purple. Those include Alaska, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

 

House Democrats Top GOP Fundraising By Nearly $100 Million

House Democrats Top GOP Fundraising By Nearly $100 Million

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.

 

Democratic Congressional candidates have trounced their Republican counterparts in fundraising efforts through the first two quarters of the 2018 election cycle toward a record-breaking year of fundraising. And while the full third-quarter tallies aren’t due to be filed to the Federal Election Commission until Oct. 15, it looks like the Democrats are still killing it.

Through the first six months of the year, Democratic House candidates pulled in about $312 million, almost $100 million more than the GOP’s $214 million total, according to FEC data, compiled by Center for Responsive Politics.

For the third quarter, more than 60 House Democratic candidates have raised more than $1 million, which Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Lujan announced a week before the official numbers were due to be filed with the FEC. And several candidates have pulled in far greater sums.

Danny O’Connor broke a fundraising record for his district, Ohio’s 12th, by pulling in $6 million in the third quarter. Andrew Janz, who faces off against Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) reported raising $4.3 million despite a district that is likely to stay red.

Other big tickets include Kentucky’s 6th District candidate Amy McGrath, who raised $3.7 million and Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey’s 11th District, who raised $2.6 million.

Even the good stories on the other side of the aisle fall under the challenger’s shadow. For example, Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.), raised $1.1 million in the third quarter in his re-election bid for his seat in Kansas’ 3rd District. But his Democratic challenger, Sharice Davids reported raising $2.7 million in the third quarter. Incidentally, Yoder has been very vocal about not receiving enough financial support from both House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) PAC the Congressional Leadership Fund and the House campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee.

ActBlue, the online grassroots fundraising tool for Democratic candidates has seen a staggering $385 million pour in over Q3, with its biggest dollar days in its history falling on the days Dr. Christine Blasey Ford testified at Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearing on Sept. 28 and the two following days. Through the third quarter, ActBlue has raised about $1.3 billion this election cycle for Democratic candidates and organizations. That compares with $634 million in 2016, and $259 million in 2014, for the same period.

Meanwhile, Democratic Senate candidates are flush with cash, too. But people seem to be literally throwing gobs of greenbacks at Beto O’Rourke, who is challenging Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). In the third quarter alone, he raised $38 million, easily smashing any quarterly record – ever – for a U.S. Senate candidate. The haul is made up of more than 800,000 individual contributions, according to the candidate, who has not taken any money from corporate or labor PACs. In contrast, Sen. Cruz has raised $12 million over the past three months.

The odds of O’Rourke winning waxes and wanes from week to week, but he’s mostly considered the underdog in the red Lone Star State. It’s noteworthy that more than 47% of O’Rourke’s individual donors are women, compared with the average for Senate primary winners, which is 38%.

In Arizona, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D), who is running for the Senate seat Jeff Flake (R) is vacating, has raised nearly $7 million in the third quarter, according to an article in The Hill. She’s up against Rep. Martha McSally (R).

And Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) raised more than $6 million in Q3 through 140,000 individual contributions averaging $19.

So, what will happen with all this campaign cash? A media blitz like we’ve never seen is forming thanks to so much money to burn and get-out-the-vote campaigns, which is what could really sway the outcome in November.

 

GOP Superpacs Pull Money From Failing Incumbents

GOP Superpacs Pull Money From Failing Incumbents

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.

You know we’re getting down to the wire when the big purses start pulling out of campaigns and redirecting their funds to candidates they think have a prayer of winning. In the past week, we’ve seen that play with two big Republican PACs, the Congressional Leadership Fund and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

Most recently, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely aligned to House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), cut off funds for two GOP incumbent campaigns, for Rep. Mike Bishop (R-Mich.) and Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.). The Super PAC, which has already raised about $100 million for the 2018 election cycle, is pulling out of $1 million in TV ad spots it had reserved for Coffman and $2.1 million it had reserved for Bishop. The fund will redirect the funds elsewhere, according to an article in Politico.

Political action committees give a disproportionate amount of their campaign dollars to incumbents because congressional re-election rates are typically in the 90% range. So, to see PACs walk away from incumbent races, especially funds so flush with cash, is quite unusual. But then again, this mid-term election is anything but typical.

According to Republican officials, in both races, Democratic challengers are leading and are expected to outspend Coffman and Bishop significantly in the final weeks leading up to the election. But another PAC, the National Republican Congressional Committee, isn’t convinced Coffman is a lost cause and has agreed to fill the gap with a $600,000 TV ad buy, according to the Politico article.

However, a Democrat super PAC, House Majority PAC, is so confident Democratic challenger Jason Crow can overtake Coffman, it has pulled out of $800,000 it had planned for TV advertising in the Denver-area swing district.

Meanwhile, the National Republican Congressional Committee has pulled funds from other races it sees as unsalvageable at this point, such as the Congressional District 17 in Pennsylvania. It recently canceled its ad reservations in the district where Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.) is up against Conor Lamb (D). The PAC had spent about $2.2 million in ads opposing Lamb. But the Democrat has significantly outraised his Republican challenger at $7.3 million to Rothfus’ $2 million, according to a report at the end of June by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Other Republican candidates have been unhappy about the lack of support from the NRCC, such as Rep. David Young (R-Iowa) and Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.). And others are in danger of getting cut off, including Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Pa.) and Rep. Rod Blum (R-Iowa). But as former Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.), who was involved with the NRCC during his tenure, said, “These are very Darwinian decisions. It means selection of the fittest.”

As we get closer to Election Day, expect to see more money move around campaigns as Republicans try to scramble to hold onto their edge in the House and Senate.

 

Education Galvanizes Voters Keen To Toss GOP Congress

Education Galvanizes Voters Keen To Toss GOP Congress

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.

 

If there’s anything that’s come out of the Trump era, it’s a galvanization of activism across the country, renewed by enthusiasm, from the women’s march, to the fight of teachers for fair pay. People are standing up for their beliefs and rights like we haven’t seen in decades. And it is affecting ballots this mid-term season.

The latest example is the GOP runoff election held in Oklahoma on Aug. 28. The fight of state teachers there, who fought against Gov. Mary Fallin and the state’s legislators who slashed education budgets by 23.6% between 2008 and 2015, reached a satisfying new stage when the teachers’ fight turned into might at the ballot box, according to a New York Magazine article.

They had already won a small salary increase by going on strike, pushing the governor to pass a small increase in a fracking production tax—the smallest in the nation. But it proved the teachers could possibly win against the heavyweights, the energy billionaires, and they promised to take the rest of their fight for better educational resources all the way to the election.

They won, big time, last week after largely cleaning house in the first primary. Out of the 19 Republicans who voted against raising taxes to fund the teacher pay increases, only four survived the primaries and will be on the ballots in November.

Oklahoma isn’t the only state seeing this kind of a movement. It follows West Virginia, where a Republican state Sen. Robert Karnes lost re-election after opposing his state’s teacher strike for wage increases. He was defeated in the May primaries by state Delegate Bill Hamilton.

The same thing happened in the Kentucky primary in May. School teacher Travis Brenda defeated Republican House Majority Leader Jonathan Shell in the GOP primary because Shell, one of Mitch McConnell’s protégés, led a push to cut teachers’ pensions.

Voters’ Resources

Represent.Us – A bipartisan anticorruption site with information on current laws, policies, national and local resources to help make a difference in political financing.

U.S. House of Representatives Financial Disclosure Database – Use this site to view the financial disclosure statements for Congressional members and candidates.

United States Senate Financial Disclosures – This site provides the financial reports for Senators, former Senators and candidates from January 2012 to present. Senator reports are available until six years after the Senator leaves office; candidate reports are available for one year after they run for office.

 

Now Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) is fighting for his political life against the superintendent of schools for the state, Tony Evers, the Democratic challenger. Walker is trying to rebrand himself as the “pro-education” candidate. Nobody seems fooled, though. A recent Suffolk University poll showed Walker trailing 2 points behind Evers.

However, it’s not just education activism that’s giving people hope. We’ve seen activism on so many issues gear up since Trump’s inauguration, and that’s translating into voter enthusiasm.

Fox News just released a new poll asking among other questions, how interested people were in the upcoming November elections. The high total came in at a median 47% who said they were extremely interested. The news service has asked that question 28 times over the past three mid-term elections, but this result, with calls conducted Aug. 19- 21 among a random national sample of more than 1,000 registered voters, was the highest.

Across all demographics, Veterans showed the most enthusiasm at 53%, though when asked how that compared to previous congressional elections a majority said its interest registered at a similar level. The under-45 age bracket showed the lowest interest, unsurprisingly, at 41%, yet this was the only demographic among nine where the majority showed an increase in interest over previous midterm elections.

Of the total, 65% said they were certain to vote in the midterms. The group that said it is certain to vote in the upcoming election by the largest percentage was Clinton voters, at 76%. That compares to Trump voters, at 67%. And as most polls are showing, when asked if the election were held today, 49% of respondents said they would vote Democratic, compared to 38% who said they would vote Republican.

Massachusetts Primary Preview

Here are the races to watch on Tuesday:

Senate: Incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) is expected to hold onto her seat, and has raised a hefty war chest of $31.5 million, with more than half coming from small donations. However, several Republicans and a well-funded Independent candidate are challenging her. Leading the GOP candidates are John Kingston, with just shy of $6 million raised, most of which is self-funded; Geoff Diehl, with $1.9 million; and Beth Lindstrom at 1.4 million. V. Shiva Ayyadurai, an Independent candidate, has raised nearly $5 million. He is a scientist and an entrepreneur with four degrees from MIT, known for making a controversial claim that he invented email.

7th Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. Michal Capuano (D) is up against a tough opponent in Boston City Council member Ayanna Pressley. The councilwoman served as former Sec. of State John Kerry’s political director when he was a U.S. senator, and if elected, she would be the first black woman elected to Congress from Massachusetts. She was the first black woman elected to Boston’s City Council in 2009. Capuano has raised $1.7 million, from a mix of large individual contributions and PACs, compared to Pressley’s $890,143, mostly all of it from large individual contributions, according to Center for Responsive Politics.

3rd Congressional District: The state’s only open seat falls in this district which has attracted a deep bench of Democratic candidates. Frontrunners include Dan Koh, who has raised $3 million; followed by Russ Gifford, with $2.1 million; and Lori Trahan, with $1.1 million. Two Republicans are vying for the seat, Rick Green, who has raised $810,031, and Scott Gunderson, at just over $1,000.

 

New Forecast: Democrats Have 75 Percent Chance Of Taking House

New Forecast: Democrats Have 75 Percent Chance Of Taking House

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.

Political strategists like to map out a candidate’s or party’s path to victory before an election. Usually, it is decisive, involving a few linchpin states or a region. Trump’s win in Wisconsin gave him the votes he needed for the electoral college win. And looking back, his political path to victory was all about the Midwest.

But in these mid-term elections, it seems the Democrats have several avenues to retaking control of the House and they encompass all regions of the country.

Democrats are projected to pick up nine seats in the Midwest, the South, the Northeast and eight in the West, according to a new report by FiveThirtyEight. And because the party’s strength is so diffuse, they could absolutely fail in one region yet still potentially regain the House, according to the report.

These Congressional districts represent a wide range of socio-economic and racial demographics. Though it does seem that the affluent white suburb will be the sweet spot for Democrats, something that’s been widely reported. What’s interesting is that those suburbs aren’t just in California or New York, but are prevalent on the toss-up lists in Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas and Michigan, according to The Cook Political Report. They are also found in Kentucky, West Virginia and North Carolina.

FiveThirtyEight

Voters’ Resources

Represent.Us – A bipartisan anticorruption site with information on current laws, policies, national and local resources to help make a difference in political financing.

U.S. House of Representatives Financial Disclosure Database – Use this site to view the financial disclosure statements for Congressional members and candidates.

United States Senate Financial Disclosures – This site provides the financial reports for senators, former senators and candidates from January 2012 to present. Senator reports are available until six years after the senator leaves office; candidate reports are available for one year after they run.

Democrats must overtake a lot of Republican incumbents to be the majority party among 435 seats. But the candidates have a lot of other factors going in their favor, like their ability to outraise GOP challengers. That’s something of an anomaly, considering that of the competitive races where Democrats are outperforming Republicans in fundraising with individual contributions – which represents 71 of the 101 competitive districts –two-thirds of those districts feature GOP incumbents, according to The Cook Political Report.

FiveThirtyEight

And historically, mid-term elections tend to favor opposition parties. And there is much opposition to the party of Trump. We’re amid a groundswell of activism that has touched young millennials, minorities and women, and if translated into votes, will be disastrous to Republicans in November.

Primary Preview: Alaska and Wyoming

Alaska and Wyoming hold state primaries Tuesday. Here’s what to watch for in each state.

Alaska – The state is holding a primary for its one at-large U.S. Congressional House seat, currently held by incumbent Rep. Don Young (R), who is running for his 24th term. He will face Thomas John Nelson (R) in the primary. Independents Alyse Galvin and Dmitri Shein are the frontrunners and are running on the Democratic ticket, something that is allowed this campaign year. Democrats Christopher Cumings and Carol Hafner are also running against Young.

Wyoming – Incumbent Sen. John Barrasso (R) is facing Charlie Hardy in the primary, but Barrasso has a healthy war chest of $6.8 million – far outraising any challenger in the field. Self-funded Independent candidate David Dodson is next in line with $1.4 million. The only Democrat running is Gary Trauner, who has raised $631,431, according to Federal Election Commission data reported by the Center for Responsive Politics.

The state also has one at-large Congressional seat that is currently held by Rep. Liz Cheney (R), daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney. She has far outraised her Republican challengers Blake Stanley and Rod Miller. The two Democratic challengers are Travis Helm and Greg Hunter.

You May Never Know Who Owns Your Representative Or Senator

You May Never Know Who Owns Your Representative Or Senator

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.

 

Call it Déjà GRU.

The U.S. Treasury Sec. Steve Mnuchin’s recent decision to remove the already limited government oversight on dark money groups could open the doors for foreign donors. Add to that the FEC’s inability to regulate online advertising, which is expected to see $2 billion flood the digital platforms such as Facebook and Google this mid-term season. And then there’s Vladimir V. Putin’s generous offer to help us with our cybersecurity problem at the Helsinki Summit. And it feels like 2016 all over again.

But let’s take a closer look at the Treasury’s recent move to loosen donor disclosure requirements.

It means groups like the National Rifle Association and the Koch Brothers’ Super PAC Americans for Prosperity don’t have to disclose their donors to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), because they are not pure political organizations. Under the new requirements, only charities and political organizations must continue to report donor information to the IRS.

 

 

That means less transparency for campaign financing and less information for voters.

So far this election cycle, outside spending has accounted for $197.1 million. That includes money from trade associations, labor unions, social-welfare groups and Super PACs. And that number will grow substantially as we get closer to November. In 2014, at this point in the cycle, outside spending accounted for $131 million. By the time the election was over, it accounted for more than half a billion dollars.

One-fifth of these outside spending groups provides no information on donors at all. Zero. That means nearly $39 million has flooded the campaign trails and there’s no public record of where it is coming from. Then 30% of the outside spending groups provide some disclosure, though it’s unclear how much that is. And 50.5% of the groups provide full disclosure of their donor base, according to data from the Federal Election Commission and compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. This was all before The Treasury Department changed its disclosure requirements.

Voter Resources

Represent.Us – A bipartisan anticorruption site with information on current laws, policies, national and local resources to help make a difference in political financing.

U.S. House of Representatives Financial Disclosure Database – Use this site to view the financial disclosure statements for Congressional members and candidates.

United States Senate Financial Disclosures – This site provides the financial reports for Senators, former Senators and candidates from January 2012 to present. Senator reports are available until six years after the Senator leaves office; candidate reports are available for one year after they run for office.

 

So far in these midterm elections, Conservatives are well ahead of liberals in raising money through dark-money channels. Based on ideology, conservatives account for $131.8 million in total outside spending. That compares to $86 million for liberals and $9.2 million attributed to others, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Thanks to the Treasury secretary, and this new policy, we can expect to know far less about who is contributing to which group going forward. Information like the fact that Robert Mercer donated $2 million to a dark money group that peddled anti-Muslim ads on Google and Facebook in the final weeks leading up to the 2016 election. Though to be fair, that only came to light in April due to a gaffe made by the accounting firm for the PAC, Secure America Now, when it provided an unredacted tax form to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Democrats Winning Costly Congressional Money Race

Democrats Winning Costly Congressional Money Race

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.

 

Democrats are outraising Republicans across the board this mid-term election cycle, including in the House races, something we haven’t seen since 2010. They are also heavily favored by individual donors – pulling in three times as much money from individuals in Senate races than Republicans. This is also shaping up to be one of the most expensive mid-term elections on the books.

At this point, with 13 states still to hold primaries, the Democrats have raised a total of $574.8 million for current candidates. That compares to a total of $398.8 million for Republicans. And that number should climb as we get closer to the general election and people and PACs put more money behind the horses they want to see win the race.

Right now, there are 567 Democrat candidates for House seats who have raised $337.7 million. That compares to 411 Republican candidates who have raised $300.1 million. Democrats have pulled in $83.4 million from PACs, compared to the $116 million Republican House candidates have gotten so far. But individual donors are heavily favoring Democrats this election cycle. For House races, Democrats have received about $221 million from individual donors. Republican candidates have received $146.3 million, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Democratic candidate Jonathon Ossoff raised the most of any candidate at $30.4 million only to lose to Republican challenger Karen Handel, who raised $7.4 million, in a special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District.

For Senate candidates, 39 Democrats have raised $237.1 million. On the Republican side, 46 candidates have raised a total of $98.7 million. Democrats have pulled in more donations from PACs and individual donors. They have received $31.8 million from PACs, compared to $12.1 million for Republicans. But they have raised about three times the amount from individual donors as their Republican counterparts, at $181.8 million to the GOP’s $52.3 million.

Incumbent Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) had raised the most of any Senate candidate so far at $26.9 million, according to a filing at the end of March and based on the most current FEC data.

Looking back at 2010, when Republicans “shellacked” the Democrats, as President Obama put it at the time, the fundraising numbers looked like what we are seeing now, with the edge going to the Republicans. But those numbers account for the full election cycle right up through the election in November. We’re in early July. In 2010, the Democrats had 391 House candidates who raised a total of $474.2 million; $190.3 million from PACs and $263 million from individual donors. The Republicans had 414 candidates who raised a total of $461.2 million; $128.4 million from PACs and $289.6 million from individuals, according to FEC data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.

On the Senate side, the Democrats had 34 candidates who raised $224.9 million; $37.1 million from PACs and $166.1 million from individuals. There were 38 Republican candidates who raised a total of $347.2 million; roughly $40 million from PACs and $210 million from individuals. The Republicans took back control of the House and Senate that election and have held control since.

Look at the numbers again and compare where we are now – four long campaigning months away from Election Day –  to the 2010 numbers and consider just how expensive this year could be for a mid-term cycle.

Five More Congressional Districts Move Needle Left

Five More Congressional Districts Move Needle Left

Reprinted with permission from DCreport.

 

Five more congressional seats in four states have started to lean blue in the past two weeks, according to The Cook Political Report.

The most surprising may be an open seat in a coal country district in West Virginia, which Trump carried by 50 points in 2016. Democratic candidate state Sen. Richard Ojeda, a retired Army paratrooper, is leading recent polls over his Republican challenger state Del. Carol Miller in the 3rd congressional district. A recent poll by Monmouth University had Ojeda leading 43% to Miller’s 41% for the seat vacated by Rep. Evan Jenkins’ (R) recent unsuccessful Senate bid. In this district, Democrats also have a voter registration edge over Republicans, 50% to 27%, according to The Cook Political Report.

In Virginia, the 10th congressional district is considered leaning Democrat where incumbent Barbara Comstock (R) will face Jennifer Wexton (D) in November. The race had been considered a toss-up before now.

Meanwhile, Kentucky’s 6th congressional district has moved from a leans-Republican to a toss-up, according to Cook’s Political Report. Incumbent Andy Barr (R) will face Amy McGrath (D), a retired Marine fighter pilot. Both candidates have raised north of $2 million. McGrath raised half of her war chest in campaign contributions after the airing of her two-minute video likening her military service to her desire to run for office. The video aired in August and launched her national profile.

There are two congressional districts in Texas where the needle has moved to the left. In the 31st district, it’s not exactly a time for Democrats to rejoice, as the change is from a solid-Republican bet to a likely Republican one. But it’s a move to the left nonetheless. Incumbent John Carter (R) will go up against Mary Jennings Hegar (D) in the general election.

Meanwhile, the 32nd district has moved from a leans-Republican district to a toss-up. Incumbent Pete Sessions (R) will face Colin Allred (D).

Primary Preview: Seven States Hold Elections Tuesday

This Tuesday, seven states head to the polls. Colorado, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma and Utah hold primaries while Mississippi and South Carolina will hold runoff races. Here’s what to watch for in each state.

Colorado: Most of the congressional races across the state are considered competitive. But the races to watch are in the 5thand 6th congressional districts. In the 5th district, five-term incumbent Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) faces two Republican challengers who have raised almost as much money as he has. On the Democrat side, Stephany Rose Spaulding faces candidate Marcus Murphy.

In the 6th district, incumbent Mike Coffman (R) is running unopposed for the primary but is seen as vulnerable in November. The Democratic candidates are Jason Crow and Levi Tillemann. Crow has raised five times the amount Tillemann has with $1.6 million in early June, according to the Federal Election Commission. And Crow is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s candidate as part of its “Red to Blue” program. But Tillemann has won himself some notoriety lately with a campaign ad about gun control where he douses himself with pepper spray. The ad has garnered hundreds of thousands of YouTube video hits lately, though not necessarily from voters.

Maryland: Incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin (D), who has served in the Senate for decades, faces a deep bench of Democratic challengers for his seat on Tuesday, including Chelsea Manning, the former U.S. Army soldier jailed for leaking classified information. Cardin is expected to easily win his primary. On the Republican side, frontrunners include Christina Grigorian and Tony Campbell, among nine other challengers.

The other race to watch in Maryland is the 6th congressional district for the open seat being vacated by Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) as he retires to focus on a 2020 presidential bid. Eight Democratic candidates are vying for the spot. David Trone, the millionaire co-founder of Total Wine & More, has spent more than $10 million of his own money on this campaign. In 2016, he spent more than $13 million on a failed House run. Other frontrunners include Aruna Miller, Nadia Hashimi and Roger Manno. On the Republican side, four Republicans are running, led by Amie Hoeber.

New York: The Empire State holds its federal primary on Tuesday. The races to watch are in a couple of congressional districts: the 11th and the 19th. In the 11th district, incumbent Rep. Dan Donovan (R) is facing a unique challenger – the congressman who held the seat before him. Former Congressman Michael Grimm is running again after having to give up his seat in the Staten Island district in 2015 when he pleaded guilty to tax fraud. Incidentally, Donovan is under scrutiny for discussing a possible pardon for Grimm with Trump, according to Center for Responsive Politics. Donovan has spent three times the amount Grimm has and has the backing of outside spending groups.

On the Democratic side, Max Rose is the frontrunner with a war chest larger than Donovan’s at nearly $1.6 million, and greatly more than the next Democratic challenger, Omar Vaid, who had raised just shy of $200,000 in early June, according to the elections commission. There are seven Democrats battling to be on the ballot in November.

In New York’s 19th congressional district, seven Democrats are fighting to face off against incumbent John Faso (R), who is running unopposed for the primary. Antonio Delgado (D) had raised more than Faso in early June, according to the FEC, with a total of $2.2 million. Close behind him was Pat Ryan with $1.6 million and Brian Flynn with $1.5 million. Outside spending groups have spent $524,000 ahead of the primary in support of the Democrats, most of it going to Iraq War veteran Pat Ryan’s campaign.

Oklahoma: The race to watch is for the open seat vacated by Rep. James Bridenstine (R) in the 1st congressional district. There are five Republicans vying for the seat. McDonald’s franchisee Kevin Hern has raised more money than the other four candidates combined, with roughly $1.4 million. The other candidates include Andy Coleman, Tim Harris, Nathan Dahm and Danny Stockstill. But Hern has some opposition from super PAC Club for Growth Action, which has spent roughly $270,000 against him ahead of Tuesday’s primary. And a non-partisan super PAC, With Honor Fund, which is dedicated to helping veterans win elections, has poured just under $200,000 into challenger Andy Coleman’s campaign, according to Center for Responsive Politics.

On the Democrat side, there are five contenders: Tim Gilpin, Amanda Douglas, Gwendolyn Fields, David Hullum and Mark Keeter. The Democrats haven’t raised nearly the amount of money the GOP candidates have, but they are not reeling in PAC money, either. Frontrunner Gilpin had raised roughly $75,000 in early June, according to the elections commission.

Meanwhile, the 5th district, which includes Oklahoma City, is considered competitive with a “likely Republican” rating, compared with “safe Republican” for other seats. Incumbent Rep. Steven Russell (R) faces two Republican challengers, Dejuan Edwards and Gregory Dunson, though he is favored to win the primary. But on the Democratic side, there is a lineup of seven challengers with frontrunner Kendra Horn. She had raised $372,404 by early June, compared to Russell’s $616,280, according to the elections commission.

Horn’s donations come mostly from in-state donors. At least 70%, and possibly more, of her donors are Oklahomans, while 70% of Russell’s donors come from out-of-state donors, mostly D.C.-area political action committees. Most of Oklahoma’s congressional incumbents are seeing an influx in donations from out-of-state donations, according to Oklahoma Watch.

Utah: The Utah primaries are in the national spotlight because former Massachusetts governor and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is running for senator. Romney is running for the open seat retiring Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) is vacating. Romney, a staunch critic of Trump, faces state legislator Mike Kennedy (R) in the primary. Romney has outspent Kennedy and the Democratic frontrunner Jenny Wilson by $1.5 million ahead of the primary. But Kennedy is the only candidate to receive support from outside spending groups in the race, according to Center for Responsive Politics.

There are five Democratic candidates vying for the open seat, but Wilson is the clear frontrunner. She had raised $540,606 by early April, according to the elections commission.

Mississippi: The state is holding two runoff elections Tuesday, one for the Senate and one for the 3rd congressional district. The Senate Democratic primary runoff will determine which candidate will face incumbent Sen. Roger Wicker (R) in November. The Democratic candidates are Howard Sherman, a venture capitalist, and state legislator David Baria. Sherman had outraised Baria by more than half a million dollars, according to FEC filings in early June.

In the 3rd congressional district Republican primary runoff, candidates Whit Hughes and Michael Guest are competing to face Democratic state legislator Michael Evans in November for the open seat vacated when Rep. Gregg Harper (R) he would not seek re-election after five terms.

South Carolina: The 4th congressional district will hold a Republican primary runoff between candidates Lee Bright and William Timmons. Bright had edged out Timmons by a few hundred votes in the first primary, though Timmons had outraised him substantially with $703,509 in his war chest in early June compared to Bright’s $192,424, according to the elections commission. Outside spending groups have spent close to $850,000 on the congressional 4th district this primary season. And Timmons has garnered support from social welfare groups ahead of the runoff, pulling in close to $300,000 from the Conservative Leadership Alliance alone.

In California, Democrat Dollars Back A Republican

In California, Democrat Dollars Back A Republican

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.

 

Californians head to the polls Tuesday, June 5, and to turn more seats blue, Democrats and their campaign machines are pulling out all the stops.

The Golden State has an unusual primary system; the top two candidates, regardless of party affiliation, make it on the ballot in November. That makes for all sorts of guerrilla warfare.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in a bold move to try to split the Republican vote for Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s (R-Calif.) 48th Congressional seat in Orange County, has spent about $110,000 in the last week to bolster candidate John Gabbard (R), according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The committee, the official campaign arm for Democrats in Congress, paid for robocalls and radio ads supporting Gabbard, who lags behind frontrunners Rohrbacher and California state legislator Scott Baugh.

Unlike countless other key congressional races across the country, Russia and the swirl of news regarding Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s ongoing investigation is uniquely relevant to Rohrbacher’s re-election bid. The 30-year congressional veteran is a persistent advocate of closer relations with Moscow. It’s position that has derisively earned him the moniker “Putin’s favorite congressman” and tied him into the daily trickle of news on possible collusion in the 2016 election.

The Democrats seem to be having some issues on their own ticket. The committee’s candidate is real-estate executive Harley Rouda, who has a war chest of close to $2 million, according to Federal Election Commission data—more than Rohrbacher at just under $1.6 million. National liberals also back Rouda. But the California Democratic Party has endorsed Hans Keirstead, a stem cell researcher and neuroscientist. He had slightly outraised Rohrbacher at $1.63 million.

Baugh’s communications director, Matthew Cunningham, said he doesn’t think the committee’s last-minute spending will be enough to keep the Republican off the ticket. “The Democrats are saying and doing anything they can to knock (Baugh) out of No. 2,” Cunningham told the Center for Responsive Politics. “Republicans are turning out in the 48th, and we’re confident of taking the No. 2 spot on June 5.” Baugh had only raised $591,853, according to the FEC.

The primaries to date have proven that money doesn’t guarantee a win. But Baugh’s team may be underestimating the might of the committee and its “Red to Blue” campaign backing candidates across the country with organizational and fundraising efforts to flip seats in November.

Ballotpedia has been tracking the primaries where the committee has endorsed candidates and out of 9 races where the data is available, eight of the candidate backed by the committee have won. The only instance a non-committee candidate won was in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District on May 15. In that race, candidate Kara Eastman (D) won the primary and will be on the ballot in November.

 

Big Eight Primary Preview

This Tuesday, eight states hold primaries for the mid-term elections. Here’s a snapshot of what to watch for in each state.

Alabama: Keep an eye on the Alabama attorney general race. Three candidates are vying for the full term to fill incumbent Steve Marshall’s (R) spot, who was appointed in February 2017, when then-State Attorney General Luther Strange (R) was tapped to fill the seat for U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R). Three candidates to keep an eye on are Chess Bedsole, Troy King and Alice Martin.

California: The Golden State’s jungle primary system, which sends the top two candidates to the November election regardless of party, makes for a most interesting spectacle.

Incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) is seeking her sixth term, despite not getting an endorsement from the California Democratic Party. Her top challenger is Kevin de León (D). The Republican field has a wide range of candidates and white nationalist Patrick Little (R), who was expelled from the Republican convention, managed to poll in second place to Feinstein in April, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

One of the hottest primaries to watch is the 25th Congressional District. Incumbent Rep. Steve Knight (R) is the only Republican in the race, which means a Democrat will automatically get on the ticket in November. Bryan Caforio (D) came within six points of defeating Knight two years ago, and he’s running again. Another top candidate is nonprofit executive Katie Hill (D). Hillary Clinton carried the district in 2016.

Iowa: Republicans currently control pretty much all power in the state and the midterms represent a chance to change that. The gubernatorial race is one to watch as five Democrats hope to unseat incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R).

Democrats are hoping to flip the 3rd Congressional District held by incumbent Rep. David Young (R), and the Fourth Congressional District, which is held by Rep. Steve King (R).

Montana: Keep an eye on the Republican primary for the Senate seat held by incumbent Jon Tester (D-Mont.), which is considered vulnerable after Trump carried the state by 20 points in 2016. Four Republicans hoping to challenge Tester are State Auditor Matt Rosendale, former state judge Russ Fagg, businessman Troy Downing and state Sen. Albert Olszewski.

Mississippi: The race to watch in this state is for the 3rd Congressional District. Incumbent Rep. Gregg Harper decided against running for re-election in this firmly red district. Six candidates are now circling his seat with state Sen. Sally Doty (R) and district attorney Michael Guest (R) leading the pack.

New Jersey: The Garden State could be critical for Democrats to take back the House this fall. Races to watch include districts 2 (both Democratic and Republican primaries), 7 and 11. On the Senate side, incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D), whose corruption case ended in a mistrial last fall, is running again but challenged by activist Lisa McCormick (D) and two GOP candidates, former biotech executive Bob Hugin (R) and businessman Brian D. Goldberg (R).

New Mexico: The race to watch in this state is for Congressional District 1. Incumbent Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is running for governor, leaving the seat open for a field of seven Democratic candidates, one Republican, one Libertarian and an Independent. Frontrunners include Antoinette Sedillo Lopez (D), Debra Haaland (D) and Damon Martinez (D).

South Dakota: The race for Governor is an open seat with incumbent Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) unable to run due to term limits. Four-time Rep. Kristi Noem (R-S.D.) is leaving the state’s one Congressional seat to run for governor. She’ll face challengers state Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) and Democrat Billie Sutton, the state Senate’s minority leader.

Vying for Noem’s open Congressional seat are three Republicans, Dusty Johnson, Shantel Krebs and Neal Tapio, and one Democrat, Tim Bjorkman.

Dark Money Dominating Midterm TV Ad Campaign

Dark Money Dominating Midterm TV Ad Campaign

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.

 

An influx of money from outside spending groups has goosed TV ad spending this mid-term season with a focus on special elections and contested primaries.

Spending is up nearly 90% compared to the same period in the 2014 mid-terms with more than $260 million spent on nearly 400,000 TV ads between January 1, 2017 and May 3, 2018, on races for House, Senate and governor, according to a report by the Wesleyan Media Project and the Center for Responsive Politics.

In fact, about $65 million was spent on roughly 150,000 ads in House and Senate special elections this cycle in Montana, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Alabama alone.

Overall, dark money groups have funded about a third of the TV ads airing in the House races and almost half of those in Senate races. Put in other terms, two out of every three ads came from an outside spending group, according to the study.

Typically, the groups are run as 501(c)(4) social welfare organizations and are not supposed to be political in nature. They also do not have to disclose their donors. They spend heavily during the long run-up to an election but only have to report ads to the FEC 30 days before a primary or 60 days before the general election. And they can mention candidates and issues, running support or opposition ads.

For example, the Koch Bros. group Americans for Prosperity bought tens of thousands of ads during the 2014 mid-terms before disclosing anything to the FEC. The trend continues this cycle with that same group targeting six critical Senate races and two gubernatorial races with more than 15,000 ads at an estimated cost of $5.4 million. But the dark money group only reported spending $44,643 to the FEC for its activity in a Pennsylvania race for a U.S House seat.

Republicans dominate the airwaves with outside-spending ads. Four out of the top five most active outside groups buying TV ad spots are conservative groups, with American Action Network in the top spot, followed by Americans for Prosperity close behind.

Only two pro-Democratic groups crack the top 10, Save My Care and Majority Forward. Together, they have spent about $3.4 million on roughly 12,000 TV spots.

Meanwhile, the study has shown a sharp spike in TV ad-buys for state races this cycle, especially among gubernatorial races. Those ads nearly doubled to 350,000 this cycle from 174,000 in the same period in 2014, according to the study.

A look at the breakdown of ads for the May 8 primary races alone, which were held in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia, showed Democrats’ TV ads focused exclusively on policy issues. Pro-Republican TV ads did include some issues, like guns, abortion and immigration, but also included ads that were Pro-Trump, Anti-Obama and Anti-Clinton.

Voting Resources

U.S. Election Assistance Commission – This site gives information on how to register to vote, election day, contact information, candidates and tons of other helpful links. The EAC is an independent, bipartisan commission created in 2002 by the Help America Vote Act.

U.S. Vote Foundation – This site provides information on how to register to vote, election dates and deadlines, plus information for domestic, overseas and military voters.

Can I Vote – This is a great and easy resource with information on voter registration, polling places, voter identification and absentee and early voting. It is part of the National Association of Secretaries of State.

League of Women Voters – This site has a collection of news stories, blogs, local and national resources to help keep you informed on the issues that matter the most right now, from redistricting to immigration. You can also register to vote and learn about your local and state representatives.

 

Primary Preview: Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky

Three states hold statewide primaries this Tuesday: Arkansas, Georgia and Kentucky, though none have Senate seats on the ballot.

Arkansas: All four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for grabs and the state is holding elections for its Governor and state legislature. Arkansas is heavily Republican and voted for Trump with a 27-point lead in the 2016 general election.

The U.S. Congressional 2nd District is considered to be a competitive race, however. Incumbent Rep. French Hill (R) faces four Democratic candidates on the ballot, Clarke Tucker, Paul Spencer, Gwendolynn Millen Combs and Jonathan Dunkley. Hill has raised $1.5 million to the top Democratic fundraiser, Tucker’s $602,128, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Georgia: There are 14 U.S. Congressional seats up for re-election and the state legislature.

The gubernatorial race has attracted nationwide attention because if state Rep. Stacey Abrams (D) wins the election in November, she would be the first black female governor in the nation. She is on the ballot on Tuesday against fellow state Rep. Stacey Evans. And there are six candidates vying for the Republican spot on the ballot in November, with Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle (R) the frontrunner.

The Congressional races to watch boil down to the 6th and 7th Districts where Democrats may have a chance to pick up seats. Incumbent Rep. Karen Handel (R) won a tough special election against Jon Ossoff for former Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price’s vacant seat in the 6th District in 2017. With the Blue Wave momentum, that could mean she’s vulnerable, as well as Rep. Rob Woodall (R) in the 7th District.

Kentucky: The Bluegrass State does not have its Governor or other state executives on the ballot. But it does have six Congressional seats and its state legislature, courts and local government up for re-election.

The biggest race to watch is the U.S. Congressional 6th District, which could be vulnerable to flip blue. Incumbent Rep. Andy Barr (R) faces six Democratic challengers led by Lexington Mayor Jim Gray and Marine Corp. Lt. Col. Amy McGrath. Though Barr won re-election in 2016 by more than 20 points, his seat is now seen as only “leaning Republican”.

Featured image: A TV ad by Americans for Prosperity, the flagship group of the Koch donor network (Opensecrets.org).

House Challengers Raising More Money Than GOP Incumbents

House Challengers Raising More Money Than GOP Incumbents

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.org

 

Republicans know they have a fight on their hands to keep control of the House with a narrow majority. And it’s not looking good that to date 14 Democratic challengers have outraised their GOP incumbents while not a single Democratic incumbent faces the same problem, according to cycle-to-date campaign finance data. In fact, nine Democrats have six-figure advantages over their opponents.

Take North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District where a competitive race is seen as leaning Republican. Democratic challenger Marine veteran Dan McCready has a six-figure fundraising lead over Republican incumbent Robert Pittenger. McCready has raised $1.8 million, spent $514,000 and has $1.3 million cash on hand. Pittenger, meanwhile, has raised about $1.1 million and spent nearly $875,000, which leaves about $253,000 cash on hand.

Two coastal toss-ups – California’s 48th and New York’s 19th—are showing the Republican incumbents lagging by six-figure deficits as well. In California, Democrat Harley Rouda has outraised Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) by almost $326,000 and in New York, Antonio Delgado has raised $295,000 more than Rep. John Faso (R).

In the race for Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, it gets worse. Democratic challenger Roger Dean Huffstetler has pulled in nearly $650,000 more than Rep. Tom Garrett (R).

And then there are the races where incumbents are being outraised by challengers within their own parties, as is the case with two Republicans and one Democrat. Republican George Flinn Jr. of Tennessee’s 8th Congressional District has outraised Rep. David Kustoff (R) by almost $333,000 ahead of the August primary to date. Scott Dacey is outraising 12-term Congressman Walter Jones Jr. of North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District by $56,000 ahead of the primary. And in New York’s 16th Congressional District, Democratic challenger Jonathan Lewis has raised $30,000 more than Rep. Eliot Engel (D), according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Democrats need to win 24 seats to win a majority in the House. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has become the 38th House Republican to announce retirement or plans to seek another office.

Dark Money Floods Hotly Contested Arizona Congressional Race

Arizona’s 8th Congressional District prepares to cast ballots on Tuesday for the next House representative to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Trent Franks (R) who held the seat since 2013 before announcing his retirement in December amid sexual harassment claims. A lot of money has funneled into this race, which pits two female candidates against each other, former state Senator Debbie Lesko (R) and Hiral Tipirneni (D), an emergency room physician.

Tipirneni has raised about $735,000 to Lesko’s $565,000. But enter the dark money, mostly in favor of Lesko, to try to throw the race. As of this month, dark money groups, in the form of several Republican PACs, have poured about $1.5 million into supporting Lesko—spending more than $900,000 the week before the election. Outside spending groups have spent a little more than $60,000 in support of Tipirneni.

The 8th Congressional District is made up of affluent, older white suburbanites and has long been a Republican stronghold. But this race has all the makings of the recent Pennsylvania race that went to Democrat Conor Lamb by just 627 votes.

Earlier polls showed Lesko in a comfortable lead—up by double digits—while an Emerson College poll a week ago showed Tipirneni a point ahead of Lesko, which is still within a margin of error.

That same Emerson poll showed that Tipirneni’s supporters were likely to stick with their party contrasted with Republicans who are showing a new national trend of splitting or leaning Democratic.

Voting Resources

U.S. Election Assistance Commission—This site gives information on how to register to vote, election day, contact information, candidates and tons of other helpful links. The EAC is an independent, bipartisan commission created in 2002 by the Help America Vote Act.

U.S. Vote Foundation—This site provides information on how to register to vote, election dates and deadlines, plus information for domestic, overseas and military voters.

Can I Vote—This is a great and easy resource with information on voter registration, polling places, voter identification and absentee and early voting. It is part of the National Association of Secretaries of State.

Rock the Vote—This site has all the information necessary to register to vote and learn about the important issues. There is information on how to volunteer and take action on issues that are important to you, as well as many resources to help you stay informed.

Can Stacey Abrams Become the First Black Female Governor?

Stacey Abrams

Stacey Abrams has already made history. The House Minority Leader for Georgia, Abrams (D) is the first woman to lead either party in the state’s general assembly. But she could make history on a much grander scale if she wins her bid for governor, thereby becoming the state’s first female governor and the first black female governor in our nation’s history.

The Spelman College and Yale Law School Graduate, with a master’s degree from the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas, has an interesting résumé. She has worked as a tax attorney and created the New Georgia Project to register hundreds of thousands of voters, particularly minorities, young people and unmarried women – a growing voting bloc for Georgia.

Abrams has also written eight romance novels for HarperCollins under the pen name Selena Montgomery. Later this month, she’ll publish a book under her own name, “Minority Leader: How to Lead from the Outside and Make Real Change.”

Abrams still has the primaries to get through. She’ll face Stacey Evans (R), a former member of the state legislature on May 22.

If successful, she’d likely face Casey Cagle, Georgia’s lieutenant governor in the General Election. Cagle’s made a few missteps lately, though. Notably, spurning Atlanta native Delta Air Lines when it decided to stop honoring discounts to members of the National Rifle Association after the Parkland, Fla., shooting. That much-publicized move by Cagle may have also cost the state the site of Amazon’s next headquarters.

It would seem Abrams has a lot of ammunition, in addition to the momentum of the Blue Wave sweeping the nation. Stay tuned.

N.Y. Gov. Cuomo Uses Executive Power to Restore Voting Rights to Parolees

N.Y. Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced plans to use his executive power to restore voting rights to some 34,000 parolees in the Empire State, after the state legislature defeated his bill to do the same.

Critics will see the move as a bid to shore up more votes as Cuomo runs for a third term as governor. But the move is not an automatic reinstatement of voting rights. Rather, Cuomo has built a system where he will restore the rights of parolees by using his power to pardon them. However, if law enforcement authorities object to the restoration, Cuomo reserves the right to withhold these privileges on any specific parolee. This could shape up to be a bureaucratic nightmare, but a step in the right direction nonetheless.

Right now, 34 states outright deny parolees the right to vote. Another 12 states make ex-offenders serve a waiting period before voting rights are reinstated or keep them off the voter rolls permanently. And because prisoners and ex-convicts are disproportionately minorities, moves to deny them the right to vote after they have served their prison sentences is increasingly seen as a move to suppress the voting rights of minorities in state, local and federal government.

Meanwhile, a federal judge in Florida has ordered Gov. Rick Scott (R) and his cabinet to overhaul the process for reinstating the voting rights for ex-convicts, which have to wait a period of seven years before they can reapply.

Candidate Filing Deadlines

Residents of Michigan seeking to run for office in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well as state executive positions in Michigan, including governor, state and local judicial positions and county positions, must file paperwork by Tuesday, April 24. Also on the ballot in November will be the Special Election for Michigan’s 13th Congressional District and Michigan State Senate District 2 and Michigan House of Representatives District 68. The state’s Primary Election will be held on Aug. 7. Independent candidates have until July 19 to file paperwork for the upcoming general elections in November, according to Ballotpedia.

Residents of South Dakota seeking to run for office must file paperwork by Tuesday, April 24. There is one federal U.S. House seat up for grabs in the general election. There are eight state executive offices, including governor and lieutenant governor; all 35 state senate seats; all 70 state house seats; and one of the five seats on the state supreme court. The primary will be held on June 5 and if a primary runoff is necessary, it will be held on August 14.

Women Setting New Records As Midterm Approaches

Women Setting New Records As Midterm Approaches

Reprinted with permission from DCReport.org
By Jillian S. Ambroz

 

Women are becoming political powerbrokers. They are setting new trends for candidacies, donations and activism. To date, 23 percent of all federal candidates for the midterm elections are women, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That is a new record, eclipsing 2016’s high by seven percentage points. A partisan breakdown shows that 30% of candidates are Democrats while 13 percent are Republicans.

As donors, women now account for 31 percent of all donations—another new record. The growth in donations appears driven by women’s support of Democratic candidates, and particularly, female candidates. Women accounted for 44 percent of the contributions to female candidates and for 34% of the donations to men, which both reflect historic high points. Female contributions to Republican candidates remain flat, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics.

Activism—or more accurately, protest—has been a huge factor in this Age of Trump since his Inauguration, and may play a role in getting out the vote in November. To date, women have led the movements, from the Women’s March last year to the March for Our Lives events against gun violence last month. Based on research samples, 2017’s Women’s March had an 85 percent female turnout – no surprise there. The March for Our Lives event, on the other hand, was made up of 70 percent women, most just under the age of 49, with 72% holding a degree of BA or higher.

The Supreme Court heard a case on partisan gerrymandering in Maryland in Benisek v. Lamone March 28 that could affect the nation. The case involves the 6th Congressional District in Maryland, which pulled hundreds of thousands of voters from Democrat-heavy Montgomery County to redraw the Republican district in 2012 and hand it to the Democrats. The court is unsure if it wants to wade into the political waters and actually make a ruling at this point. If the court does decide to weigh in on the issue of partisan redistricting, it could have a profound effect on our nation’s politics going forward. Another case before the court involves a redrawn district that favors Republicans in Wisconsin, Gill v. Whitford. The Court heard that case last fall but has yet to make a ruling.

A flood of Congressional departures has been announced ahead of the midterm elections, the most since 1994. A whopping 41 Republicans are leaving Capitol Hill, while 18 Democrats are retiring. So far, five Senate seats are up for grabs and 54 House seats. Democrats need 23 seats to take over the House and two to take control of the Senate. While it may seem like an easy feat to reclaim those two seats and get control, the Democrats have a few vulnerable incumbent seats to defend in the Senate. But recent upsets in special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania and the state legislature voting in Virginia, which was seen as a bellwether for November’s elections, suggest the Democrats have more than a fighting chance of taking back both houses.

Despite seven years of Republican legislation that has seen dirty tricks take away voting rights in 23 states, from 2010 through 2017, the pendulum is starting to swing the other way. So far this year, 30 states have introduced at least 206 bills to expand access to the polls to counteract voter-suppression efforts at the national level, according to an article by Mother Jones.

Maryland lawmakers voted to become the eleventh state, plus the District of Columbia, to make voter registration automatic, meaning people could register to vote at the Department of Motor Vehicles and other state agencies. The bill is before Gov. Larry Hogan for signature. Residents could also opt out of the voter registration, which would go into effect in July 2019. The legislature also wants to add a state constitutional amendment making it possible for eligible citizens to register and vote on the same day. That proposal will be on the ballot in November.

The race is heating up to fill the Congressional seat for the late Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.), who served in the House for more than 30 years. Slaughter, whose district is greater Rochester, N.Y., passed away at the age of 88 on March 16. N.Y. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has yet to set a timeline for the special election, but it is believed he will follow the regular congressional election calendar. That would mean candidates would have until April 12 to collect 1,250 signatures to be eligible for a June 26 primary.

 

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